Daily Sources 7/14 (Bastille Day)

THE EU IS HALFWAY TO MEETING THEIR GOAL OF 20% RENEWABLE FUELS CONSUMPTION BY 2020

Reuters reports.

THE EURO'S INTERNATIONAL ROLE

The European Central Bank has released a 84 page paper on the international role of the Euro.

RUSSIAN SPENDING MORE THAN THE PRICE OF OIL WOULD ALLOW

Toni Vorobyova at Reuters reports that Russian spending is well above what the price of oil would allow without running a deficit.

GERMANS WORRIED THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA IS COOLING

Matthias Schepp at Der Spiegel worries that the Merkel administration has not continued a strong tradition of courting Moscow, allowing other nations to attempt to get pride of place. In the meantime, John Roberts at Platts reports that RWE has decided to consider an offer from Moscow to join the South Stream pipeline plan, but loudly asserted its commitment to Nabucco.

BERLIN CONSIDERS AUCTIONING OFF EXTRA TIME FOR NUKE PLANTS

David Crossland at Der Spiegel reports that the Merkel Administration, which wants to bypass the plan to shutter all nuclear power plants by 2020, is considering auctioning off more time for the plants to operate. That is, the power companies could bid for additional time past 2020 in which they could operate. A key reason for the idea is that nuclear power makes it easier to meet carbon reduction goals.

SPANISH SOLAR POWER NOW BIGGER THAN US

Sharon Hong at News Watch Energy reports that with the commissioning of a new solar plant Spain now leads the US in solar power energy production.

SOUTH KOREAN PLAN FOR PRIVATE COS TO SPEND $18 BILLION ON GREEN TECH SMOKE AND MIRRORS

Christian Oliver at FT Energy Source warns us that the news yesterday that the plan for South Korean companies to spend $18.6 billion on green technologies is not quite what it seems.

NIGERIAN CRUDE EXPORTS TO US ON THE RISE

Jacinta Moran at Platts writes that NIgerian exports to the US are averaging 945 kb/d in the first quarter of 2010, up from 606 kb/d in the same quarter last year. A key reason is that efforts to mollify Niger Delta rebels have had some success. Meanwhile, Sharon Hong at News Watch Energy reports that the Nigerian state oil company is insolvent as it waits for the government to pay it its subsidies.

MORE THAN 4 PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR JOBS FOR EACH AVAILABLE JOB

Per Mark Thoma at Economist's View:



OIL PRICES MODERATING SOMEWHAT IN US

James Hamilton at Econobrowser updates some charts he uses to monitor energy costs in the US, including a chart of US retail gasoline prices.



Note that prices are in the range where they begin to affect driving behavior in the US, or $2.50/g. They are just short of $3.00/g where prices will have a strong effect on driving behavior.

CRUDE OIL STOCKS DOWN 5.1 MILLION BARRELS

The EIA reports that crude oil stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels in the week ended July 9th, though they are still well above the 5 year historical average. Gasoline stocks built by 1.6 million barrels and distillates grew 2.9 million barrels. The average price of gasoline for the week ended July 12th fell by 0.8 cents to 271.8 cents/gallon. For the week ended July 9th, refinery utilization grew to 90.5%.

Daily Sources 6/26

1. HSBC ISSUES $146.4 MILLION IN YUAN-DENOMINATED BONDS; THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA REITERATES CALL FOR NEW INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY

Aries Poon at the Wall Street Journal reports that HSBC Holdings PLC issued renminbi-denominated bonds on Thursday.

"SBC's 1 billion-yuan ($146.4 million) bond, aimed at institutional investors, was sold Thursday at 0.38 percentage point above the three-month Shanghai interbank offered rate, a person familiar with the deal said Thursday. That was toward the top end of the indicative range of 0.30 percentage point to 0.40 percentage point above Shibor, which now stands at 1.2925%.

Bank of East Asia plans to launch two-year yuan bonds with a coupon between 2% and 2.8%, with a retail tranche of more than 1 billion yuan, another person familiar with the situation said earlier."

Bloomberg reports that the People's Bank of China reiterated its call for a new international currency:

"To avoid the inherent deficiencies of using sovereign currencies for reserves, there’s a need to create an international reserve currency that’s de-linked from sovereign nations."

Yves Smith at naked capitalism comments:

"The practical impediments to an SDR regime is the lack of deep trading markets for investments, But the transition from sterling as reserve currency to the dollar was a protracted, messy, and disorganized affair. The Chinese prefer order and particularly want a fixed rate (or at least narrow float as they have now) regime. They see floating rates as destabilizing and as bad for trade. They increase uncertainty which deters investment.

Again, this may simply be more insistent posturing. The Chinese tend to be frontal. But if nothing else, the Chinese are signaling that they are not happy with the status quo and expect change. The US simply has not been with that program. And we don't seem to have other ready ways to placate the Chinese. We've nixed deals we considered politically sensitive, to their outrage, and will continue to guard our advanced military technology. It isn't clear what China wants in the way of gives and gets here. Again, this may be playing to a domestic audience, but negotiators can get locked into what was initially mere playing to the gallery.

This salvo coming now is also going to be perceived to constrain US fiscal deficits if we need a second stimulus package (likely). I tend to buy the analysis that the spending shortfall is large enough that this isn't the inflationary monster that it is perceived to be. However, the fly in the ointment is first, that we have already thrown so much firepower into the sinkhole of the financial system with perilous little effect (restructuring debt, shorting up certain borrowers directly, reining in the banks, and smaller capital infusions would have been a much better course of action). In particular, the Fed efforts to create a zillion facilities to shore up TBTF markets that have become important channels for credit extension muddies the picture considerably."

2. SOME GERMAN ANXIETY RE: DIMINISHING INFLUENCE WITH THE US--AND WORLD

Gregor Peter Schmitz at Der Spiegel worries that very few representatives of the US government were at a reception for Chancellor Merkel held at the Library of Congress on Thursday.

"[T]here was just a single member of the House of Representatives (out of a possible 435) who bothered to show up to see the German chancellor. Interest for countries like Germany is no longer seen as a way to advance one's career in the US Congress. Those who take an interest in foreign policy have begun looking to Asia first. The only other politician of note at Merkel's reception [outside of former Sen. Chuck Hagel] was Alan Greenspan. But the 83-year-old is also now in retirement."

The Chancellor will be meeting with President Obama today, on the other hand, but the article does seem to express a genuine worry in Europe that it is being relegated to the margin in determining the international order. I suppose it is a legitimate concern, though Europe's role in the world is hardly marginal. (On the other hand, Germans no longer represent the largest ethnic group in the United States, as they did at the time of WWII.)

3. JOSCHKA FISCHER TO ADVISE NABUCCO

Der Spiegel reports that former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer has taken a job as a consultant to the Nabucco gas pipeline project.

"Fischer has joined the €7.9 billion ($11.1 billion) project as a political adviser, primarily to ensure that Turkey remains on board--but also to manage relations with other countries affected by the pipeline, including transit countries Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary."

"Ironically, Fischer's new position puts him across the fence from [ex-Chancellor Gerhard] Schröder, his former political partner from 1998-2005, when a coalition government of Schröder Social Democrats and Fischer's Greens called the shots in Berlin. Just weeks after losing his chancellor job to Angela Merkel in the 2005 elections, Schröder took a position as chairman of the board of a Gazprom consortium currently building a natural gas pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea from Russia to the northern German coast. Called Nord Stream, the 1,220 kilometer long pipeline is scheduled for completion in 2012 and is estimated to cost some €7.4 billion."

4. IRAQI OIL MINISTER FACES CRITICISM IN IRAQI PARLIAMENT

Samuel Ciszuk at IHS Global Insight reports that Iraqi oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani testified before the Iraqi Parliament on Tuesday and Thursday, meeting a barrage of criticism.

"[Chairman of the parliamentary Oil and Gas Committee, Ali Hussein Balou, led the assault on the oil minister’s policies, saying that the parliament would 'totally reject' the contracts unless it was allowed to ratify them, adding that 'we will not allow the Oil Ministry to move ahead, ignoring parliament and signing contracts in the first bidding round, since they are illegal and unconstitutional'. The outlook for the future was perhaps even more menacing, with Balou—from the Kurdish minority that is claiming full autonomy over its oil industry and reserves—promising that the fight would continue even if the licenses were awarded. 'If [Shahristani] dares to sign these contracts, he must assume responsibility for the consequences', Reuters quoted him as saying."

The energy committee issued a summons for the oil minister to appear in May--see Daily Sources 5/18 #4--and parliamentarians have been openly calling for his resignation since--see Daily Sources 5/21 #6.

5. QATAR AGREES TO SUPPLY PAKISTAN WITH 1.5 MILLION TONS LNG/YEAR

Chris Stanton at the Nation reports that Pakistani and Qatari officials yesterday concluded a preliminary agreement to ship 1.5 million tons of LNG a year to Pakistan.

"Pakistan had originally sought 3.2 million tonnes, but Qatar could not provide that amount, [Asim] Hussain [a petroleum and natural resources adviser to the Pakistani government] said. Pakistan regularly suffers power cuts because it has inadequate supplies of gas to fuel power stations.

The country faces a gas shortage of about 192 million cubic feet per day (cfd), according to estimates released earlier this year by the ministry of petroleum resources. That amount will grow to 507 million cfd next year and reach 3 billion cfd by 2015.

The volumes of LNG under discussion yesterday would work out to about 200 million cfd."

The proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline (or just Iran-Pakistan pipeline) remains bogged down--presumably the problem remains a question of the price Pakistan would pay for the gas.

6. QATARI PM AND CHIEF OF EGYPTIAN INTELLIGENCE MEET IN RIYADH

Khaled Omar Abdel Halim at Almasry Alyoum reports that Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani told al-Jazeera that he had met with Omar Suleiman, the chief of the Egyptian General Intelligence Services, in Riyadh for talks mediated by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal.

"Hamad denied any rift between Egypt and Qatar. He said the tension between the two countries was caused by some Egyptian officials, who follow the principle of 'either you are with me or you are against me.' He also accused some American officials of trying to exploit their failure by showing incomprehensible sensitivity towards Qatar and all its initiatives. And he expressed that he cannot identify the next steps to bring the two countries closer to each other."

He also denied any link between the Hezbollah cell in Egypt and Qatar. (h/t Michael Collins Dunn at MEI's Editor's Blog.)

7. ISRAEL GRANTS PALESTINIAN SECURITY FORCES MORE FREEDOM TO OPERATE

Isabel Kershner at the New York Times reports that Israel has agreed to give Palestinian security forces more freedom to operate in the cities of Ramallah, Qalqilya, Bethlehem and Jericho.

"The Israeli military also recently removed several significant checkpoints inside the West Bank, in line with a policy of easing movement and improving daily life for the Palestinians so long as calm prevails."

8. 4 NIGER DELTA MILITANT GROUPS AGREE IN PRINCIPLE TO ABUJA'S AMNESTY OFFER; MEND ATTACKS OFFSHORE WELL HOURS AFTER OFFER MADE

Austin Ekeinde at Reuters reports that four militant groups have indicated that they want to meet with representatives of the government to discuss the details of the recent amnesty offer made by Abuja.

"Representatives of Ateke Tom, Farah Dagogo, Soboma George and Boyloaf--key leaders of armed gangs behind some of the most spectacular attacks--said they wanted to meet [President Umaru Yar'Adua] to work out details of the deal.

'We accept peace as encapsulated in the said offer of amnesty,' they said in a joint statement.

'Depending on the outcome (of the meeting with Yar'Adua), the leaders will then announce when they will begin to hand over the arms and munitions in their possession to the federal government,' the statement said.

Nigeria's chief of defense staff, Air Chief Marshall Paul Dike, said the security forces would observe a cease-fire and respect all the terms of the amnesty. But he warned the army would respond if attacked."

The four groups are from the states of Rivers and Bayelsa and all have ties to MEND, the umbrella militant organization. Meanwhile, Dulue Mbachu at Bloomberg reports that MEND said it had blown up an oil well in Shell’s Afremo offshore field hours after the amnesty offer made by President Yar'Adua. The attack was

"in response to 'a punitive' raid by the military on Agbeti community in Delta state, Jomo Gbomo, the spokesman for the group, also known as MEND, said in an e-mailed statement today."

The FT has a cool interactive map of the Niger Delta and its key oil and gas infrastructure here:



9. BRAZIL'S CENTRAL BANK CUTS FORECAST FOR 2009 GDP TO 0.8%, UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS SLIGHTLY

Andre Soliani and Iuri Dantas at Bloomberg report that Brazil's central bank cut its forecast for GDP growth in 2009 to 0.8% from 1.2%.

"'Consumption, which accounts for the bulk of aggregate demand, is relatively resilient,' policy makers said in a quarterly report released today. 'Monetary policy, without hurting the commitment to the inflation target, and fiscal policy tend to help the recovery of economic activity.'"

The national statistics agency announced yesterday that the unemployment rate in the six main metropolitan regions fell in May to 8.8% from 8.9%.

10. PDVSA TO ISSUE $3 BILLION IN DOLLAR DENOMINATED BONDS TO COVER DEBTS

Dulue Mbachu at Bloomberg reported yesterday that PdVSA will sell as much as $3 billion in dollar denominated zero-coupon bonds to cover its obligations, per a statement by central bank President Nelson Merentes.

"No investment bank from outside Venezuela is involved in the bond placement, Merentes said. Local investors will be able to buy the bonds at the official exchange rate of 2.15 bolivars per dollar ... .

Buyers will only be able to trade the bonds in the local market, according to the company statement. The minimum purchase is $2,000 per investor."

11. US PERSONAL INCOME UP 1.4% IN MAY FROM APRIL, PERSONAL SAVINGS AT HIGHEST RATE SINCE DEC 93

Jeff Bater at the Wall Street Journal reports that personal income rose by a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.4% in May from April, per the Commerce Department.

"Disposable personal income in May--income after taxes--jumped 1.6%, driven by the aid package President Barack Obama signed in February to spur the economy. Disposable income rose 1.3% during April.

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 6.9% in May, the Commerce Department said. It was 5.6% in April and 4.3% in March.

The 6.9% rate was the largest since 7.6% in December 1993."

The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy rose by 1.8% in May year over year. Core PCE climbed 0.1% in May from April.

12. INTERACTIVE TIME LINES OF FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM THE NY FED

The NY Fed published a useful interactive time line of the financiaL crisis and the international response. It also published one for the US. (h/t James Hamilton at Econobrowser.)

Daily Sources 8/29

1. Saskia Scholtes and James Politi report in the Financial Times that China's largest commercial bank--the Bank of China (3988:HKG)--has cut its holdings of government sponsored enterprise (GSE) like Fannie Mae and Mac debt by $4.6 billion, or about 25%. Analysts are reporting that Asian investors have become net sellers of GSE debt. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism points out that although Bank of China went public in 2006, the PRC government still holds a majority stake--so this may be a harbinger of future Chinese government thinking on holding US govt-backed assets. The Group of Twenty is meeting this weekend and there is speculation that US Treasury officials will use the meeting as an opportunity to encourage foreign GSE creditors not to cut their holdings.

2. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism says that yesterday's GDP growth revision upward is pure nonsense.

3. Felicity Barringer of The New York Times reports that a measure to encourage housing close to job sites and public transportation infrastructure has passed the California State Assembly in Sacramento and looks like it just might be passed in the State Senate. Very encouraging. Gov. Schwartzeneggar has not indicated whether or not he would sign the bill. Not so encouraging.

4. Marcin Grajewski at Reuters reports that a survey conducted by TNS Opinion for Friends of Earth show that 87% of Europeans surveyed in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain support measures currently being debated in Brussels which would cut the legal fuel consumption of new cars by a quarter. A committee is set to vote on the proposal this coming Monday.

5. Madeline Chambers and Vera Eckert at Reuters write that Germany is considering establishing a 90 day national natural gas reserve analogous to their strategic petroleum reserve to guard against potential disruptions. Redundancies always make a lot of sense in strategic commodities, IMO.

6. Denis Dyomkin and Tanya Mosolova of Reuters write that Russian officials have publicly stated that they will not cut off energy supplies to Europe in response to sanctions Europe is currently considering.

7. ConocoPhillips and Lukoil announce that production at the Yuzhno Khylchuyu (YK) field has begun. The field holds light and sweet crude with an API of 35.5 and sulfur content of at 0.71%wt. The field production level is designed to reach 150kb/d by 2009.

8. Clifford Levy reports for The New York Times that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in a CNN interview suggested that the US orchestrated Saakashvili's attack in South Ossetia in order to shore up Sen. McCain's chances of being elected come December.

9. Dan Senor reminds us in the Wall Street Journal's op-ed page about Sen. Joe Biden's old plan to partition Iraq into an Iraqi Sunnistan, Shiastan, and Kurdistan. The plan, with which Biden went so public in 2006, has been quietly dropped.

10. Praful Bidwai of the Inter Press Service writes in the Asia Times that the dissenters in the Nuclear Suppliers Group look ready to put the kibosh on the US-negotiated nuclear deal with India which would include the country--a non-signatory to the non-proliferation treaty--in the global nucler supply system. Evidently Indian diplomats figured on bluster getting it through.

11. The BBC reports that Iran has entered a nuclear technology sharing agreement with Nigeria.

12. Emma Amaize of the Nigerian Vanguard reports that the former Commonwealth Secretary-General, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, said in a speech on Wednesday that the situation in the Niger Delta constituted a national crisis for the country. He urged the establishment of two anti-insurgency military units as part of the solution.

13. Stephanie McCrummen of The Washington Post writes a very interesting piece of analysis on Western investors being lured to Sub-Saharan Africa by high returns, government reforms, and Chinese, Indian, and Middle Eastern interest in the region.

14. Cary O'Reilly at Bloomberg reports that a US Judge has denied a motion by ExxonMobil to dismiss a case brought before him by Indonesian villagers which argues that the company contributed to human rights violations by government security forces. The US Supreme Court has refused to take on the case, leaving it to the lower court. Next month Chevron faces a trial in a San Francisco court for similar charges brought by Nigerians of the Delta region.

15. Michiyo Nakamoto reports in the Financial Times that the Japanese government has unveiled a economic stimulus package of $105.8 billion (¥11.5 trillion) which includes fuel subsidies, as well as income tax cuts and monies for new medium and small business loans. h/t to Free Exchange.

16. Nick Snow at the Oil & Gas Journal reports that a Senate Bill which would open more of the Outer Continental Shelf to drilling has garnered six more co-sponsors, bringing the total to 16. Apparently Kent Conrad (D-ND) and Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) are optimistic that it will get the 60 co-sponsors needed to make it fillibuster-proof soon.