Daily Sources 8/9

1. SOUTHEAST ASIA BUYING WEAPONS AT BREAKNECK RATE

Jon Ponfret at the Washington Post reports that a recent publication by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that concerns over China's rise has pushed countries in Southeast Asia to almost double their weapons purchases from 2005 to 2009.

"The buying spree is set to continue, with reports that Vietnam has agreed to pay $2.4 billion for six Russian Kilo-class submarines and a dozen Su-30MKK jet fighters equipped for maritime warfare. This is in addition to Australia's stated commitment to buy or build nine more submarines and bolster its air force with 100 U.S.-built F-35s. Malaysia has also paid more than $1 billion for two diesel submarines from France, and Indonesia has recently announced that it, too, will acquire new submarines."

2. CHINA TO CLOSE 2,000 ENERGY INEFFICIENT FACTORIES

Keith Bradsher at the New York Times reports that China will close 2,087 steel mills, cement works and other energy-intensive factories by September 30 in order to try and increase its energy efficiency.

3. CHINA MAKES NO PUBLIC COMMENT ON SEIZURE OF ITS FISHERMEN

Brian Spegele at China Real Time reports that China has still made no public statement regarding the seizure of three fishermen by North Korea, allegedly for fishing in the North Korean exclusive economic zone.

4. HUGO CHAVEZ TO MEET NEW COLOMBIAN PRESIDENT TO TRY AND DAMP DOWN TENSIONS

Christopher Toothaker at the Associated Press reports that Hugo Chavez will meet the new Colombian president--Juan Manuel Santos--will meet in Colombia to discuss how to reduce tensions between the two countries.

5. PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV ARRIVES IN ABKHAZIA ON SUNDAY

CNN reports that Russian President Medvedev arrived Sunday in Abkhazia where he will meet with his counterpart, Sergey Bagapsh.

6. FORMER PRESIDENT OF MEXICO FOX CALLS FOR THE LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS

Jonathan J. Levin and Jens Erik Gould at Bloomberg report that the former President of Mexico, Vicente Fox, has called on the country to legalize drugs as a way of tamping down drug cartel violence.

8. COMPANIES ARE SEEKING LICENSES TO BUILD 22 NEW REACTORS

Chuck McCutcheon at the Christian Science Monitor reports that companies in the US are seeking licenses from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build and operate 22 new reactors. A Gallup poll in March found that 62% of Americans now favor nuclear power.

9. US INCOMES FELL BY 1.8% IN 2009

Phil Izzo at Real Time Economics reports that US incomes fell by an average of 1.8% in 2009. The article includes a sortable chart of income growth by city.

10. KRUGMAN NOTES THAT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE US IS BEING ALLOWED TO FALL INTO DISREPAIR

Paul Krugman at the New York Times reports that localities are letting their roads go to gravel, turning off the lights, and pushing through big cutbacks in education funding while the rest of the world is in the process of building up their infrastructure. A good read.

Daily Sources 8/5

1. THE ECB AND BANK OF ENGLAND MAINTAIN THEIR BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES

Gabi Thesing at Bloomberg reports that the European Central Bank left its benchmark rate at 1% today--the sixteenth month the rate has been at 1%.

"Separately, the Bank of England left its main rate at 0.5% and kept its bond-stimulus plan at 200 billion pounds ($318 billion)."

2. EVANS PRITCHARD ARGUES THE SPIKE IN WHEAT PRICES IS LIKELY TO GO DOWN; RUSSIA BANS EXPORT OF WHEAT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR

Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the UK Telegraph says that the current problems with wheat are not the same as the problems which caused the 2008 wheat price spike. Global wheat stocks are much higher, the cost of oil is down, and there are likely to be bumper harvests in the US and elsewhere. In the meantime, Andrew E. Kramer and Jack Healy at the New York Times report that Russia announced today that it would ban grain exports through the rest of the year.

"In announcing the ban, which is in force from Aug. 15 to Dec. 31, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin said that Russia had sufficient stockpiles of grain but that blocking exports was an appropriate response to the worst drought in decades.

'We need to prevent a rise in domestic food prices, we need to preserve the number of cattle and build up reserves for the next year,' he said during a televised cabinet meeting, according to The Associated Press. 'As the saying goes: reserves don’t make your pocket heavy.'"

3. PEMEX REDUCES ACTIVITIES IN NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DRUG VIOLENCE

Upstream online reports that Pemex, the Mexican state oil company, has scaled back drilling and maintenance in the north's Burgos basin due to the deteriorating security situation there because of the ongoing drug violence in the region.

4. CHINA ADDED THE MOST WIND POWER IN 2009, SURPASSING THE US

Austin Carr in Fast Company reports that China overtook the US in 2009 in terms of added wind power capacity. Cumulatively, the US still has more wind power, but if this trend continues not for long.



5. RELIANCE TAKES THIRD STAKE IN MARCELLUS SHALE GAS

Rakteem Katakey at Bloomberg reports that Reliance Industries of India has agreed to pay $392 million for a 60% stake in acreages in the Marcellus shale-gas areas of central and northeast Pennsylvania held by Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. This is the third US shale gas acquisition Reliance has made this year.

6. VIOLENCE IN DARFUR ON THE RISE

Neil MacFarquhar at the New York Times reports that violence in Sudan's Darfur region is on the rise again as the referendum on independence in southern Sudan approaches.

7. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS CLIMB TO 479,000

Bob Willis at Bloomberg reports that "Initial jobless claims climbed by 19,000 to 479,000 in the week ended July 31, the most since April."

8. RETAIL SALES IN JULY WERE FLAT YEAR-OVER-YEAR

MasterCard's SpendingPulse reports that overall July sales were flat year over year.

"Michael McNamara, Vice President, Research and Analysis for SpendingPulse, observes 'Overall, retail sales continued to tread water, following the pattern set with June's sales when consumers demonstrated a reluctance to make larger purchases, and instead, traded down. Particularly, we are noticing some weakness in industry sectors that rely on higher priced ticket items such as furniture and discretionary areas such as luxury and jewelry. We are also seeing this pattern echoed in the restaurant business, where we have seen consumers shift from full-service restaurants and particularly fine dining, to limited-service and quick-service outlets.'"

Daily Sources 7/26

US SENATORS PEN LETTER RE: REPORT ON CHINA'S MILITARY BUILD-UP

Several US Senators have penned a letter to the Defense Department asking for assurances that the report on China's military build-up hasn't been toned down. The report is five months late in the making.

PLAN TO BROADCAST MORE IN MANDARIN IN GUANGDONG LEADS TO PROTEST

Brian Spegele at China Real Time reports that a plan to broadcast more shows in Mandarin in Cantonese-speaking Guangdong Province led to a decent-sized protest.

CHINA FACING DIFFICULTIES MANAGING WATER RESOURCES

Christina Larson at Environment 360 reports that China is facing increasing difficulty managing its water resources. China has 20% of the world's population, but just 7% of the world's fresh water resources.

"World Bank estimates show that China possesses only one-fourth the global average amount of water per capita. As more and more of its people move to cities, household demands will grow. Professor Wang estimates that Beijing’s water use has grown 150 percent in just the last decade. China’s power sector is extremely water-intensive, and steeply rising energy use is also driving water demand."

UKRAINE MAY ISSUE RUBLE-DENOMINATED DEBT

Daryna Krasnolutska and Denis Maternovsky at Bloomberg report that Ukraine is considering issuing ruble-denominated bonds after abandoning a US-dollar bond issue in the middle of July.


ISRAEL RAISES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE

Alisa Odenheimer at Bloomberg reports that the Bank of Israel has raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to 1.75%.

AFRICAN UNION HEAD CONDEMNS ICC'S INDICTMENT OF SUDANESE PRESIDENT

Agence France Press reports that the head of the African Union, the President of Malawi, has said that the International Criminal Court's indictment of the President of Sudan undermines peace and security in Africa:

"To subject a sovereign head of state to a warrant of arrest is undermining African solidarity and African peace and security that we fought for for so many years."

ANADARKO DISCOVERS OIL OFFSHORE GHANA

Sharon Hong at Newswatch: Energy reports that Anadarko has made a significant oil discovery off-shore Ghana.

"The discovery well found about 174 net feet of "high-quality" oil pay in two zones, the company said. The oil appears to be light crude between 33 and 36 degrees API."

MONEY FOR MEXICAN DRUG WAR NOT SENT

Jackson Diehl reports that only a small percentage of money budgeted to help Mexico in its drug war is actually reaching Mexico City.

JUNE HOME SALES WORST EVER RECORDED (SINCE 1963)

Calculated Risk reports that

"Sales of new single-family houses in June 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 ... This is 23.6 percent (±15.3%) above the revised May rate of 267,000, but is 16.7 percent (±10.9%) below the June 2009 estimate of 396,000."

HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH AS A PERCENTAGE OF DISPOSABLE INCOME BACK TO LATE 80S EARLY 90S LEVELS

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture hosts a graph of household net worth as a percentage of disposable income:



IS AMERICA FACING INCREASED STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT?

FreeExchange hosts a debate.

Daily Sources 7/21

1. BANK OF CANADA RAISES INTEREST RATE TO 0.75%

Greg Quinn at Bloomberg reports that Canada yesterday raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percent to 0.75%. The central bank indicated that it would consider international developments before raising the rate further.

2. MEXICAN RETAIL SALES UP 5% IN MAY

Jonathan J. Levin at Bloomberg reports that Mexico's retail sales were up 5% from last year in May. The increase took place outside of Mexico's border regions with the US where drug cartel-inspired violence has become endemic. Americans are "thinking twice" before crossing the border to shop.

3. JF-17 MAKES A SPLASH AT FARNBOROUGH

Brian Spegele at China Real Time reports that the Chinese and Pakistani new fighter jet--the JF-17--made a splash at this year's Farnborough International Air Show in England.

"Aircraft sales are the most lucrative part of Beijing’s weapons exports, totaling some $815 million, China Daily reported."

The plane relies on Russian made jet engines, but the fact that China is willing to export its latest technology makes for a different arms theory than that practiced by the US.

4. INTERNET USAGE IN CHINA IS SURGING

Kevin Sullivan at the Compass reports that Chinese internet usage is surging.



23% of a billion is a lot of people.

5. CHINA FACING HOUSING BUBBLE?

James Hamilton at Econbrowser asks whether China is facing a housing bubble.



6. NEW SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA

Craig Whitlock and Karen DeYoung at the Washington Post report that the US has announced that it will impose further sanctions on North Korea.

7. INSURANCE COMPANIES ABANDONING IRANIAN SHIPPING

Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch at the Washington Post report that insurance companies have abandoned their relationship with Iranian shipping in order to comply with new US sanctions. Ports will refuse to allow Iranian ships entry if they are not covered for potential damages. Worth reading in full.

8. KURDS BLOW UP TURKO-IRANIAN GAS PIPELINE

Ivan Watson and Yesim Comert at CNN report that Kurdish rebels today took credit for the bombing of a Turkish-Iranian gas pipeline.

"An official from BOTAS, Turkey's state oil and gas company, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CNN that the fire had been extinguished. However, the official said, it will take at least six days to resume pumping fuel through the pipeline. In the meantime, BOTAS has increased the flow of gas from Azerbaijan to compensate for the gas cut."

9. INDIA AND PAKISTAN DISPUTE KASHMIR DAM

Lydia Polgreen and Sabrina Tavernise at the New York Times report that tensions are rising over the construction of a dam in Jammu-Kashmir. Pakistan is worried that India will be able to control water flow to its farmers during planting season. Worth reading in full.

10. COLOMBIA LOOKING UP

Frontier Markets optimistically notes that Colombia is emerging from its drug war. Investors will be more likely to place their money in Colombia than, say, Venezuela.

12. HOUSING HEADED FOR A DOUBLE DIP?

Barbara Kiviat at the Curious Capitalist argues that a double dip in housing is likely.

13. CRUDE AND PRODUCTS STORAGE INCREASES

The EIA reports that crude oil stocks grew by .4 million barrels in the week ended July 16th. Gasoline stocks grew by 1.1 million and distillate stocks grew by 3.9 million barrels. The national price of gasoline rose by 0.4 cents to 272.2 cents per gallon for the week ended July 19th. (Prices between $2.50 and $3.00 per gallon is where you start to see modification of use.) For the week ended 7/16 refinery utilization crept up to 91.5%.

Daily Sources 7/8

THE IMF REVISES ITS WORLD GROWTH MEASURE UPWARDS

S.D. at Free Exchange reports that the IMF has revised its world economic growth indicator upwards by 0.4% to 4.6%. The IMF indicated that it believed world growth was 5% for the first quarter of 2010. Meanwhile, Alex Frangos at Real Time Economics reports that the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, has said that developing countries still need to worry about big inflows of money.

BALTIC DRY INDEX AT LOWEST POINT IN YEAR



BANK NEGARA MALAYSIA RAISES OVERNIGHT POLICY RATE TO 2.75% FROM 2.5%

Shamim Adam at Bloomberg reports.

BRAZILIAN SENATE APPROVES NEW STATE OIL COMPANY

Upstream Online reports that the Brazilian Senate has OK'd a new oil company to handle the offshore pre-salt fields, tentatively to be called Pre-Sal Petroleos. The bill remains stuck in the lower house of the Congress, however.

US AND MEXICO TO FORM BILATERAL COUNCIL ON COLORADO RIVER

David Steffen at the Imperial Valley Press reports that the US and Mexico have agreed to set up a bilateral council on the Colorado River.

"The U.S. and Mexican governments, Colorado River basin states and {International Boundry and Water Commission] representatives would make up the council. Its mission would be to facilitate administrative and legal aspects associated with the binational agreement, according to the minute."

COMMERCIAL VACANCIES CONTINUE TO CLIMB

Mark Thoma at Economist's View posted the following graph:



INFLATION NOWHERE TO BE FOUND

Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser checks a variety of data looking for US inflation, but finds none. Here is his graph of the annualized 3 month change in price indices.



TEMP JOBS UP 19.6% YEAR OVER YEAR BUT FULL TIME DOWN 0.7% YEAR OVER YEAR

Invictus at the Big Picture reports that temp jobs are up 19.6% year over year, the most since the data series began to be recorded in 1990. Private sector full time jobs less temp jobs is down 0.7% year over year, unusually low given the temp jobs number.

Daily Sources 8/4

1. IEA WARNS THAT $70 OIL COULD UNDERMINE ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Kate Mackenzie at the Financial Times reports that the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, told the newspaper in an interview that oil prices above $70/b would likely undermine any economic recovery.

"'If we go one step further, if we see prices go much higher than that, we may see it slow down and strangle economic recovery,' he said of oil prices on Friday, when the European benchmark was around $70."

2. CHINA MAY CHANGE RULES TO MAKE SUBORDINATED BONDS INELIGIBLE AS CAPITAL, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE VOLUME OF CREDIT

Wang Ming and Rose Yu at the Wall Street Journal report that the China Banking Regulatory Commission

"may deem subordinated bonds issued by a bank ineligible as capital if those bonds are held by another bank, the person said. The banking regulator estimates about half the subordinated bonds in circulation are held by other banks.

The amount that banks in China can lend is governed by technical capital ratios -- the more capital, the more room to lend. A big way banks have raised capital is by selling yuan-denominated subordinated bonds, or debt instruments that offer investors less protection in the event an issuer can't repay but also a higher yield than regular bonds."

"Analysts said any curb on how subordinated debt can be used would likely slow lending, because it would limit the appetite of the market's biggest investors, which are banks.

'If the regulator excludes cross-held subordinated bonds from being classified as part of banks' capital, banks will have to try to sell their bonds to nonbanking investors,' said Guo Tianyong, the director of the Finance Research Center at Beijing's Central University of Finance and Economics. That will be difficult, Mr Guo said, and 'as a result, banks will slow the pace of subordinated-bond issues, which would eventually lead to a slowdown in credit growth.'

She Minhua, an analyst at Haitong Securities, said, 'Changing the rules would effectively cause a further decline in banks' capital adequacy ratios, so the fastest way for them to maintain a healthy ratio would be to cut loans.'"

3. CHINESE SEABORNE OIL IMPORTS UP 26% IN JULY YOY

Bloomberg reports that preliminary data from the Chinese Ministry of Transportation indicates that Chinese seaborne imports grew by 26% in July from a year previous.

"Chinese ports unloaded about 16.27 million metric tons, or 3.8 million barrels a day, of imported crude last month ... ."

4. NORTH KOREA RELEASES US JOURNALISTS DURING FORMER POTUS VISIT

Heejin Koo at Bloomberg reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il pardoned and ordered the release of two American journalists who had been arrested after allegedly crossing into North Korean territory.

"By seeking an amnesty, the US appears to be conceding that the two reporters broke North Korea’s laws, Paik [Hak Soon, a researcher on North Korean issues at Sejong Institute] said.

'The visit indicates that the US and North Korea are willing to resolve this matter through dialogue,' he said. 'We’ll have to see if this expands to the nuclear issue.'"

"The former president and the North Korean leader 'had an exhaustive conversation' and a 'wide-ranging exchange of views on the matters of common concern,' [the] Korean Central News Agency said without giving further details. The country’s National Defense Commission hosted Clinton at a dinner in his honor, the agency said."

Pyongyang has been long seeking direct bilateral talks with the US regarding its disputes with the international community.

5. AUSTRALIAN CENTRAL BANK LEAVES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 3%, RETAIL SALES ARE DOWN 1.4% IN JUNE FROM MAY

EcPulse reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia decided today to maintain their benchmark interest rate at 3%.

"[Reserve Bank Governor] Stevens said in his statement that the world economy started to show clear signs of stability, thanks for the global stimulus plans set by governments around the world that led to an improving outlook for the world economy. He added that the US economy reached a turning point, while the economy in the euro zone is still weak."

Meanwhile, Jacob Greber at Bloomberg reports that Australian retail sales fell by 1.4% in June from May.

"Today’s report suggests the impact from A$12 billion ($10 billion) in government cash handouts to households is waning after consumer spending helped Australia avoid a recession in the first quarter. Still, the economy may expand in the second quarter after retail sales rose 2% in the three months through June. Economists forecast a 1.3% gain.

'We still have retail sales at a very strong levels,' said Ben Dinte, an economist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Sydney. 'With the strengthening consumer sentiment, we should see retail sales hold up.'

The quarterly retail sales figure accounts for as much as 25% of Australia’s gross domestic product, Dinte added."

6. RUSSIA AND TURKEY TO SIGN PACT TO BUILD OIL PIPELINE WHICH WOULD BYPASS THE BOSPHORUS

Ali Berat Meric and Stephen Bierman at Bloomberg report that Russia and Turkey will sign an accord to build a pipeline to send oil to the Mediterranean bypassing the Strait of Bosphorus.

"OAO Gazprom, Russia’s largest company, and Turkey’s Calik Holding AS will sign an accord to build a pipeline between the northeastern port of Samsun and a terminal at Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko told reporters in Ankara today before a visit by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin later this week."

7. GERMAN BIRTH RATE MAY HAVE DECLINED

Der Spiegel reports that a report released yesterday by Eurostat indicates that

"for every thousand inhabitants in Germany, only 8.2 children were born in 2008. Which indicates a decrease of 0.1% in the German birth rate and makes Germany the only EU member in which the crude birth rate did not increase between 2007 and 2008."

8. HILLARY CLINTON EXPRESSES CONCERN REGARDING HIKERS ARRESTED NEAR IRANIAN BORDER

Nada Bakri at the Washington Post reports that yesterday Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed concern about the welfare of three American hikers who were arrested after entering an area near the Iranian border. Of course, the incident will be used by elements in Tehran as evidence that the recent elections unrest is the result of foreign meddling.

9. MEXICO MAY INTRODUCE FUEL EFFICIENCY STANDARDS

Robert Campbell at Reuters reported yesterday that the head of the Mexican National Ecology Institute, Adrian Fernandez, said in an interview that Mexico is planning to introduce fuel efficiency standards for all new cars sold in the country.

"The government is currently studying which type of standards to impose but it is leaning towards a plan that would be similar to proposed fuel efficiency rules in California or other parts of the United States, ... Fernandez said in an interview.

'The standard will cut gasoline imports by as much as a new refinery.'"

Imprecise, but it would have a significant effect.

10. VENEZUELA TO NATIONALIZE COFFEE COMPANIES, LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO SWEDISH ARMS FOUND IN FARC CAMP

Steven Bodzin and Daniel Cancel at Bloomberg report that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said today on state television that he was considering nationalizing two coffee companies after having seized their processing plants yesterday. He said,

"We’ve intervened in these big companies. Now we are conducting a study to expropriate them. They will become property of the nation."

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that Caracas has indicated it has launched a probe into how arms purchased from Sweden ended up in the hands of FARC guerrillas in Colombia.

"Justice Minister Tareck El Aissami said authorities had launched 'an internal investigation ... to determine the origin and destination of these weapons,' referring to Swedish-made AT-4 launchers that Colombia says were found in a cache belonging to guerrillas.

El Aissami gave no indication, however, that Chavez's administration was easing its stance toward Colombia amid a diplomatic fight that erupted last week after Colombian President Alvaro Uribe complained the weapons had been acquired by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ... ."

12. RUSSIA SIGNS ACCORD WITH NICARAGUA TO EXPLORE FOR OIL AND GAS

Eric Watkins at the Oil & Gas Journal reports that the Nicaraguan government has signed accords with a Russian consortium allowing for oil and gas exploration and production in the country.

"'The concessions include the Caribbean and Pacific, both offshore and on land,' said Francisco Lopez, president of the Nicaraguan Petroleum Enterprise. He said a technical board would be installed to analyze implementation of the agreement.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said the proposed exploration in Nicaragua would be carried out by the Russian National Oil Consortium, created on Oct. 8, 2008, and comprising Rosneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, TNK-BP, and Surgutneftegaz."

13. ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NAMES HIGHEST PEAK ON ISLANDS "MOUNT OBAMA"

Nika Kentish at the Associated Press reports that the Antiguan Prime Minister, Baldwin Spencer, today renamed the highest mountain in Antigua and Barbuda "Mount Obama." He said at the dedication ceremony:

"This great political achievement by Barack Obama resonated with me in a way that I felt compelled to do something symbolic and inspiring. As an emancipated people linked to our common ancestral heritage and a history of dehumanizing enslavement, we need to at all times celebrate our heroes and leaders who through their actions inspire us to do great and noble things."

14. HAVIV ARGUES 'SHADOW INVENTORY' LOOMS OVER US HOUSING MARKET

Julie Haviv at Reuters reports that so-called "shadow inventory" is hanging over the US home market.

"'The number of homes listed officially on the market, while still at historically high levels, might be only the tip of the iceberg,' said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate website Zillow.com in Seattle, Washington.

According to Zillow's latest Homeowner Confidence Survey, 12% of homeowners said they would be 'very likely' to put their home on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround, 8% said 'likely,' while 12 percent said 'somewhat likely.'

The survey of 2,123 adults aged 18 and older, of whom 1,357 are homeowners, was conducted online.

Survey results could translate into around 20 million homeowners trying to sell their homes, a startling number given that the Census bureau indicates there are 93 million US houses, condos and co-ops, Humphries said."

15. HURRICANE SEASON UNDERWAY IN US, GAO STUDY FINDS REFINERY OUTAGES HAVE VERY SMALL AFFECT UPON PRICE

Jesse's Café Américain notes that the hurricane season is underway, and that the peak is usually in mid-September. He notes that "Hurricanes offer a tempting opportunity for energy 'investment.'" I would note, however, that insofar as a legitimate reason for hedging goes, hurricanes are certainly one--and those who want to hedge will need counterparties. Meanwhile, Michael Giberson at Knowledge Problem has the fascinating news that the Government Accountability Office has released a report showing that refinery outages generally have a very small affect upon prices. The report, which I have not had time to read, can be found here.

16. WAL-MART LAST WEEK ISSUED $1.1 BILLION IN SAMURAI BONDS

In a story I missed last week, Lisa Twaronite at MarketWatch reported that Wal-Mart issued US$1.1 billion in yen-denominated bonds (¥100 billion).

"The market for samurai bonds--yen-denominated bonds issued by foreign institutions in Japan--evaporated in the global credit storm. But including Wal-Mart's offering, samurai issuances in July are expected to exceed 200 billion yen--the largest amount since June 2008, Japanese business daily Nikkei reported Wednesday."

Apparently the market is drowning in dollars. (h/t Chuck Butler's Daily Pfenning.)

Daily Sources 7/28

1. MAYER AND WOOD ARGUE THAT CHINA'S ENTRANCE INTO THE WORLD ECONOMY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DE-INDUSTRIALIZED REST OF DEVELOPING WORLD

Jörg Mayer and Adrian Wood at Vox EU argue that China's integration into the world's economy has not had the effect of substantially de-industrializing other developing nations.

"The biggest possible effect would be for a country which initially produced or exported equal amounts of manufactures and of primary products, where a 15% fall in the ratio would reduce the share of manufactures by 3.5 percentage points.

These estimates are imprecise and subject to error; the true answer may lie outside their range. But there is no plausible modification of the calculations that could make the true answer much larger. This is mainly because, despite its size, China’s opening had only a modest effect on world average endowments. The upper-limit estimates, obtained by simply adding China’s endowments to the rest of the world’s, are a 9% rise (from 0.43 to 0.47) in the share of the global workforce with a complete primary or secondary education, and a 17% fall in the average land/labour ratio, from 2.9 to 2.4 square kilometres of land per 100 workers ... . The average effect on the structure of output and trade in other countries is unlikely to have been larger than these world average endowment changes and was probably smaller.

The significance of the China effect varied widely among developing countries. This is partly because its size varied with the composition of each country’s manufacturing and primary production – how closely its industrial products competed with Chinese exports, and how much demand there was from China for its primary exports (more, say, for copper than for coffee). It is also because there were many other forces acting on sectoral structures--including changes in countries’ own trade policies--whose effects often outweighed those of China."

Worth reading in full.

2. NEPAL HARASSING TIBETAN REFUGEES

Gopal Sharma at Reuters reports that Nepal is responding to pressure from Beijing by cracking down on Tibetan refugees in the country.

"Nepali authorities have regularly broken up protests by Tibetan exiles and arrested them for protesting against China's crackdown on demonstrations in Tibet.

The Washington-based [International Campaign for Tibet] said Tibetan refugees were 'increasingly demoralized' as Nepal 'relinquishes its historic and sovereign interests in response to incentivized political pressure from Beijing and its sympathizers.'

ICT said 'pre-emptive arrests of Tibetans, ID checks and house searches' by authorities were contributing to a 'widespread sense of fear and insecurity' among the exiles.

'Nepal's political leadership is betting that the internal benefits of assuaging China in the cause of oppressing Tibetans will be greater... than the traditional legal and historical concepts,' Mary Beth Markey, Vice President at ICT said."

3. INDIA TO ANNOUNCE SOLAR POWER TARGETS OF 1/8TH TOTAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND, CENTRAL BANK LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED ON INFLATION CONCERNS

Krittivas Mukherjee and David Fogarty at Reuters reports that India will announce its targets for solar power generation in September. The plan promises to

"boost output from near zero to 20 gigawatts (GW) by 2020 as it firms up its national plan to fight global warming, draft documents show.

The target, which would help India close the gap on solar front-runners like China, is part of an ambitious $19 billion, 30-year scheme that could could increase India's leverage in international talks for a new UN climate pact in December, one of several measures meant to help cut emissions.

If fully implemented, solar power would be equivalent to one-eighth of India's current installed power base, helping the world's fourth-largest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions limit its heavy reliance on dirty coal and assuaging the nagging power deficit that has crimped its growth.

The 'National Solar Mission', yet to be formally adopted by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's special panel on climate, envisages the creation of a statutory solar authority that would make it mandatory for states to buy some solar power, according to a draft of the plan, which provided detailed proposals for the first time, obtained by Reuters ... ."

Meanwhile, Cherian Thomas at Bloomberg reports that India's central bank decided today to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25%.

"The central bank raised its inflation forecast for the year to March 31 to 'around 5%' from an April estimate of 4%, citing 'elevated' food and commodity prices."

4. EU TO TRAIN SOMALI SECURITY FORCES TO POLICE PIRACY

BBC News reports that the EU has announced plans to train Somali security forces to tackle the piracy plaguing their coasts.

"It will send a planning team to the region next month. The training will take place in neighboring Djibouti, which has French and US military bases."

(h/t Joshua Keating at FP's Morning Brief.)

5. IMF AND LATVIA REACH ACCORD, MAY OPEN UP NEW FUNDING

Aaron Eglitis and Timothy R Homan at Bloomberg report that the IMF and Latvia have reached an accord paving the way for the country to receive its first financial assistance from the organization since December.

"The review may unlock about 195 million euros ($285 million), which the IMF withheld in March after the Baltic country failed to commit to budget cuts, the fund said in an e- mailed statement.

Latvia turned to a group led by the European Commission and the IMF for a 7.5 billion-euro stabilization loan in December after its second-biggest bank needed a state rescue. The IMF announcement followed a 1.2 billion-euro transfer by the European Commission yesterday, helping quell concern about a lats devaluation that may have destabilized currencies across the region."

6. MOUSAVI CALLS FOR NEW STREET PROTESTS NEXT WEEK IN IRAN

Borzou Daragahi at the LA Times reports that opposition candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi has called for more street protests during religious festivals next week.

7. KENYA TO BUILD AFRICA'S LARGEST WIND FARM

Xan Rice at the UK Guardian reports that Kenya plans to build the largest wind farm in Africa.

"Some 365 giant wind turbines are to be installed in desert around Lake Turkana in northern Kenya – used as a backdrop for the film The Constant Gardener--creating the biggest wind farm on the continent. When complete in 2012, the £533m (~ $758.8 million) project will have a capacity of 300MW, a quarter of Kenya's current installed power and one of the highest proportions of wind energy to be fed in a national grid anywhere in the world."

8. FUEL OIL APPROACHING COST OF CRUDE, HURTS SHIPPING, CHINESE FUEL OIL IMPORTS ROCKET UPWARD (FROM LOW BASE), VIETNAMESE MAIDEN REFINERY TO TAKE SPOT GASOLINE DEMAND OFF MARKET, WALL OF ASIAN PACIFIC REFINING YET TO PLAY OUT

Christian Schmollinger and Alaric Nightingale at Bloomberg report that the price of fuel oil--bunker fuel, the bottom of the barrel, which is used to power ships in great part because it is cheap, generally trading at a considerable discount to crude, is approaching the price of light crude and may surpass it.

"Fuel oil may surpass crude 'for quite some time, six months is possible,' JPMorgan Chase & Co. vice president of energy strategy Vima Jayabalan said in a phone interview from Singapore."

This means that the effect of rising crude prices is having a more pronounced affect upon the cost of shipping than it did during the 2003-2008 run up in the price of crude.

"'It’s really hurting' ship owners, said Parul Bhambri, a Singapore-based analyst at Drewry.

Maersk said May 12 that falling demand for freight hobbled its ability to pass on fuel costs to customers in the first quarter, when its shipping line lost $559 million after taxes, compared with an $80 million profit a year earlier. The shares are down 40% in the past year in Copenhagen trading."

As the price of fuel oil rises, however, many simple refineries, which do not have the equipment to maximize gasoline and diesel output, can become profitable again, which may undergird a recovery in overall crude demand. That said, it still doesn't look like there's much demand for gasoline and diesel out there, which could push down the crack spread and thus the price of crude. Winnie Lee at Platts reports that Chinese fuel oil imports in June were up 6.26% from May and 45.94% from June 2008 to 13.7 kb/d. It's largest supplier was Venezuela. In that vein, Irene Tang at Platt's the Barrel blog reports that the commissioning of Vietnam's first refinery at Dung Quat is poised to erase about 30% of the country's product import demand, which will in turn erase its demand for spot gasoline purchases. The wall of new refining capacity in Asia has yet to fully be appreciated,

"China has now joined India in becoming a major swing exporter of gasoline. Apart from greenfield refineries coming onstream in the country, Beijing's decision to adopt a new products pricing formula for the domestic market and the resulting price revisions in tandem with the global benchmarks has encouraged more speculative buying at the wholesale level, causing wide fluctuations in refiner inventories.

This, in turn, has made Chinese gasoline export volumes unpredictable. The latest customs figures show gasoline exports hit a two-year high of 560,000 mt in June, a 273% surge from the corresponding month of last year. The previous high was in April 2007, at 590,000 mt.

The figures point to Chinese 'apparent' gasoline demand in June being just 1.8% higher than the same month a year ago, a contrast with on-year growth rates of 20.2% in May and 13% in April. The anomaly of the June figure, in the backdrop of staggering double-digit growth rates of automobile sales in China and a 7.7% on-year average gasoline demand growth in the first half of the year, can only be explained by wild swings in stock builds and draws."

"The full impact of the start-up of Reliance Industries' new 580,000 b/d refinery in Jamnagar should be apparent as early as August, as the company's older 660,000 b/d refinery is now restarting from a partial shutdown. Monthly gasoline exports from RIL are expected to more than double to well above 600,000 mt."

9. NIGERIAN REBELS IN SOUTH TARGET OIL MINISTER'S COMPANY, NORTHERN ISLAMISTS CONTINUE UNREST

Platts reports that the Nigerian Joint Revolutionary Council has issued a warning to UK-based independent producer Afren Resources to stop operating in the Niger Delta or risk attacks on its equipment and personnel.

"The Joint Revolutionary Council, which styles itself as a coalition of militant groups based in southern Rivers and Bayelsa states, said in a statement that its ultimatum to Afren was aimed at expressing the group's opposition to the policies of Nigeria's Oil Minister Rilwanu Lukman--policies the group sees as skewed against the Niger Delta region in the country's south.

Lukman was a co-founder of Afren and stepped down from his position as chairman of the company's board of directors once he was appointed oil minister for Nigeria in late 2008. His shares in the company were to be held in a blind trust, the company said in a statement at the time."

Lukman wants to site an oil university in his home state in the north--Kaduna. Meanwhile, Ibrahim Mshelizza at Reuters reports on the increasing Islamist inspired unrest in northern Nigeria.

"The violence was triggered when some members of the group called Boko Haram, which wants a wider adoption of Islamic sharia law across Africa's most populous nation, were arrested Sunday in Bauchi state.

Unrest spread to the northern states of Kano, Yobe and Borno, whose capital Maiduguri is home to the group's leader, Mohammed Yusuf, and has seen the worst violence.


'The situation has been contained in Bauchi and Yobe. The bad situation we have now is in Borno where the leader of the group is residing ... We are going to launch an operation, a main operation to flush them out,' [Nigerian President Umaru] Yar'Adua told reporters after meeting security chiefs and state governors."

10. PRESSURE TO CHANGE DRUG WAR STRATEGY BUILDING IN MEXICO, MEXICAN CRUDE PRODUCTION WAY DOWN

William Booth and Steve Fainaru at the Washington Post report on the growing pressure on Mexican President to change Mexico's "surge" strategy in dealing with its drug cartels.

"Dan Lund, president of the MUND Group polling organization, said public support for Calderón's strategy appears to be weakest in the places where the federal government needs it most. 'In a series of national surveys, polls consistently have found a reasonable but cautious level of support for using the military in the front lines against the cartels,' he said. 'But in all the states where the military is actually deployed, the support goes down, sometimes dramatically.'

The situation has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis, which has cast millions of Mexicans into poverty. José Luis Piñeyro, a Mexican military analyst who maintains close ties with the armed forces, said rising unemployment and poverty 'is creating what I call an "army in reserve,"' for the traffickers.

In Michoacan, La Familia has used the media to try to align itself with the disenfranchised. After the recent attacks, one of its leaders, Servando Gómez, called a local television station and told viewers: 'I want to say to all Michoacanans, we love them and respect them.'"

Meanwhile, there was plenty of stories on the decline in Mexican production last week. John Kingston at the Barrel notes:

"But here's the more stunning figure: what's happened in two years. In July 2007, Pemex reported crude output of 3.165 million b/d. That's a 20.4% decline in 23 months."

11. VATICAN AIMS AT FREE MARKETEERS, SAYING MARKETS WITHOUT ETHICS DESTROY WEALTH AND CREATE POVERTY

Flavia Krause-Jackson at Bloomberg reports that the Vatican has attacked free markets, saying that they have legitimized greed. On June 7, the pope published an encyclical which examined the financial crisis and means out of it, saying that once profit becomes the exclusive goal of business, it destroys wealth and creates poverty.

"Last November, Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said the pope had pronounced a 'prophecy' in a paper Benedict wrote when he was a cardinal.

In 1985, then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger presented a paper titled 'Market Economy and Ethics' at a Rome event on the Catholic Church and the economy. He said a decline in ethics 'can actually cause the laws of the market to collapse.'"

I think it is plain that markets cannot sustain themselves without a modicum of trust, engendered by ethics held in common.

12. CFTC MAY OR MAY NOT REVISE LAST YEAR'S REPORT EXONERATING SPECULATION IN PRICE VOLATILITY, LONDON'S FSA EXONERATES SPECULATORS

Ianthe Jeanne Dugan and Alistair MacDonald at the Wall Street Journal report that the CFTC

"plans to issue a report next month suggesting speculators played a significant role in driving wild swings in oil prices--a reversal of an earlier CFTC position that augurs intensifying scrutiny on investors."

However, I understand that the Chair of the CFTC indicated today that the story in the WSJ that the report will be redone and altered are premature and inaccurate. From the WSJ story,

"In the US, the CFTC begins public hearings Tuesday to determine whether to limit speculative investments in commodities. Congress also is weighing whether to give the CFTC the authority, under a broader proposal to revamp financial regulation, to regulate commodities investments that occur off traditional exchanges. Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, has called on the CFTC to curb 'oil speculators looking for a quick buck at the expense of American consumers.'"

I suspect that the direction of these accusations is misdirected, given that commercials may choose to purchase futures to profit on price just as much as to hedge their obligations.



Positions net long and short for the week ended July 21 only comprised 1% of the market. Note that from 2008 open interest--or the total number of contracts--has been steadily falling for both futures and options--though the trend for options was up through February.



If you include options, the number of positions held by traders net long or short represent 3.17% of the market--not an especially large share. Meanwhile, Alistair MacDonald and Carolyn Cui at the Wall Street Journal report that the Financial Services Authority in London has found no evidence that speculators are behind the wild swings in oil price seen from 2008.

"One person familiar with the matter said the FSA had seen no evidence to suggest that speculators are driving up the price of oil.

'More than they ever were before, [investors] are looking to the global economic climate and nobody is sure on that, and that is perhaps driving the volatility,' he said.

Given that view, the FSA doesn't believe that limiting the size of trading positions would be 'beneficial' for the market, said a person familiar with the matter. Still, the FSA acknowledges it doesn't have a 'full explanation' as to why the market has moved the way it has, said a person familiar with the matter.

The FSA's conclusion contradicts British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who has linked the recent rises in oil to speculation.
...
Politicians around the world are worried about the effect of rising oil prices on the recovery potential of their recession-hit economies. World leaders from French President Nicolas Sarkozy to the leaders of Asia's biggest oil-consuming nations have tied these rises to oil speculators."

"Speculation," of course, is sufficiently vague to represent a politically useful bogeyman, and it seems likely that someone will call financial protectionism. That said, I do think it is in the global economic interest to make the cost of energy--and in particular transportation fuels--more stable and predictable, I just don't think that attacking "speculation" is a particularly productive way of doing so.

13. TRUCKING VOLUMES IN US DOWN 13.6% IN JUNE YOY

The American Truckers Association yesterday announced that their

"advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.4% in June. In May, SA tonnage jumped 3.2%. June’s decrease, which lowered the SA index to 99.8 (2000=100), wasn’t large enough to completely offset the robust gain in the previous month."

Over June 2008, tonnage fell 13.6%, which exceeded the year over year drop of 11%.



The ATA release warns:

"The sample includes an array of trucking companies, ranging from small fleets to multi-billion dollar carriers. When a company in the sample fails, we include its final month of operation and zero it out for the following month, with the assumption that the remaining carriers pick up that freight. As a result, it is close to a net wash and does not end up in a false increase. Nevertheless, some carriers are picking up freight from failures, and it may have boosted the index. Due to our correction mentioned above, however, it should be limited."

(h/t Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture.)

14. HOME PRICE DECLINE SLOWING, CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURES DOUBLE NEW HOME SALES IN JUNE

Barry Ritholtz reports that home price declines are "slowly abating." Here is his graph:



Jake at Econopic picked up on the Big Picture's quote of the day of Mark M Hanson which notes that California foreclosures are more than double the national new home sales for June. His graph:



15. EPA MAY GIVE ALGAE BIG BOOST

Russell Gold at Environmental Capital notes that Blair Carter at the Renewable + Law Blog reports that "that the Environmental Protection Agency will count algae as an advanced biofuel under Renewable Fuel Standard rules being developed."

"Why do EPA’s steps towards including algae matter? Because when Congress created its mandate to blend advanced biofuel into the fuel pool, it created a big market for these fuels. By 2012, the law mandates that two billion gallons of these advanced biofuels be blended, a figure that rises by tenfold by 2022. It’s all in Section 202 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

... For algae to be included, the law says it needs to have no more than 50% of the 'lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions' of gasoline and diesel. This could be tricky, says David Woodburn, an alternative energy analyst with ThinkEquity. 'The hard part for me is understanding how the EPA plans to calculate the GHG emissions of algae fuels, based on the variety of feedstocks (sugar, CO2, other), processes (open ponds, photobioreactors), and algae varieties being explored--especially before November,' he says, noting when the rules are supposed to be finished."

Blair Carter's post can be found here.

16. TEXAS DROUGHT GETS WORSE

Tom Benning at the Wall Street Jounral reports on the drought in Texas.

"Nearly 80 of Texas' 254 counties are in 'extreme' or 'exceptional' drought, the worst possible levels on the US Department of Agriculture's index. Though other states are experiencing drought, no counties in the continental U.S. outside Texas currently register worse than 'severe.' In late April, the USDA designated 70 Texas counties as primary natural-disaster areas because of drought, above-normal temperatures and associated wildfires."

The Journal carries an interactive graphic:

Daily Sources 7/23

1. UNEMPLOYMENT GROWING RAPIDLY IN THE G-7, BUT BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT UNEXPECTEDLY DOWN

Rebbeca Wilder at News N Economics notes that unemployment continues to grow quickly in the G7, which should damper consumption:



However, Helder Marinho and Andre Soliani at Bloomberg reported that Brazil's June jobless rate in six main metropolitan areas fell to 8.1% from 8.8% in May.

"Policy makers cut the so-called Selic rate by a half-point to a record 8.75 percent yesterday and said that level was adequate to spur growth and bring inflation back to target.

The drop in the jobless rate 'indicates how strong the domestic market is,' Pedro Tuesta, senior economist for Latin America with 4Cast Inc., said in a telephone interview. 'It reinforces the idea the bank should stop cutting rates.'"

"Annual inflation, as measured by Brazil’s IPCA index, slowed to 4.8% in June, down from 5.2% in May and the lowest since March 2008. Policy makers last month reaffirmed that they seek to slow inflation to 4.5% by year-end."

Average wages, however, are not keeping pace with inflation.

2. ICELAND FORMALLY APPLIES FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

Karl Ritter at the Associated Press reports that Iceland formally applied for membership in the EU today.

"'To be frank with you, if we would get a rotten deal on the fisheries, the Icelandic people would get quite angry,' Foreign Minister Ossur Skarphedinsson said after presenting the EU application to his Swedish counterpart, Carl Bildt. Sweden currently holds the EU presidency.

'This is not only an issue of economics. It is also an emotional issue. It is also an issue that is related to sovereignty,' said Skarphedinsson, a former fisherman."

3. UK RETAIL SALES UP 1.2% IN JUNE FROM MAY, 2.9% YOY, GOVT ANNOUNCES £1.1 BN PLAN TO ELECTRIFY MORE OF ITS RAIL SYSTEM

Svenja O’Donnell at Bloomberg reports that UK retail sales rose 1.2% in June from May, and 2.9% from June 2008.

"Sales at food stores increased by 0.7%, while they rose 1.6% at non-food retailers, the statistics office said. Textile, clothing and footwear shops saw sales increase for the first time in three months, by 4.7%."

Meanwhile, Nicholas Winning at the Wall Street Journal reports that the UK has announced plans to spend £1.1 billion ($1.81 billion) on electrifying two rail routes.

"The works represent the first big electrification of the rail network since the 1980s and will increase the proportion of electric rail journeys in the UK to 67% from 60%, the government said."

4. RUSSIAN MINISTERS TO CONSIDER 0% TAX ON INITIAL MINERAL EXTRACTION IN THE BLACK SEA AND SEA OF OKHTOSK, BUT WARNS MOL THAT IT HAD BETTER COMPLY WITH LICENSING IN SIBERIAN FIELD

Kate Mackenzie at FT Energy Source reports that Russian ministers today will discuss setting a zero rate of taxation for mineral extraction for the initial stages of development in the Black Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.

"The tax breaks will apply until accumulative output reaches 20 million metric tons (~ 144 million barrels) at Black Sea fields and 30 million metric tons (~210 million barrels) in the Sea of Okhotsk, off Russia’s Pacific Coast. Alternatively, the zero rate may be applicable for 10 years or 15 years for fields being developed under combined exploration and production licenses, according to the statement."

Though I feel sure that it will be tempting enough to make some majors bite, the problem is that when the price of oil rises, Moscow will likely take measures to re-nationalize production at the fields, given their view of their strategic value. Meanwhile, Stephen Bierman and Edith Balazs at Bloomberg report that Mol--Hungary's largest refiner--pledged to meet all requirements in the license terms of a Siberian oil-production venture with OAO Russneft.

"'Mol always acts in accordance with the rules of the Russian Federation and the company will do everything on its part to fulfill all the requirements described in the license agreement,' Mol said today in an e-mailed statement.

On July 2 Russia’s subsoil agency, Rosnedra, gave the Zapadno-Malobalykskoye LLC oil venture six months to correct violations relating to its drilling plan and its use of so-called associated gas, Larisa Kalacheva, a spokeswoman for Russneft, said today. 'The time allotted to correct license infractions is very tight,' she said. 'Action is needed.'

Tensions between Mol and the Russian government have increased since Moscow-based OAO Surgutneftegaz bought a 21.2% share in the Budapest-based refiner in March. Mol called the move hostile and has barred the Russian company from participating in corporate meetings."

5. BIDEN CALLS ON RUSSIA TO REMOVE TROOPS FROM GEORGIAN BREAKAWAY REGIONS, BUT ALSO INDICATES THERE IS NO MILITARY OPTION FOR THEIR REMOVAL

Philip P Pan at the Washington Post reports that in Tblisi today Vice President Joe Biden urged Russia to withdraw its troops from the breakaway regions of Georgia.

"'What we can do is make clear to the whole world, and to the Russians particularly, that we stand with you, and that if they fail to meet their commitments, that it is a problem for them,' Biden told the children, referring to a ceasefire agreement that the Georgia and the United States say Russia is violating.

'A lot of you think maybe Russia did what they did, and they paid no price,' Biden added. 'They paid a pretty big price already diplomatically. The countries that surround Russia, even those that have been very, very loyal to Russia in their freedom, are now saying very harsh things.'"

However, earlier in the day in a speech before the Georgian parliament, Biden said there was "no military option" for Georgia to regain sovereignty over the breakaway regions.

6. CHINESE DEFENSE MINISTRY TO LAUNCH CHINESE / ENGLISH WEB SITE, CENTRAL BANKS OF CHINA, JAPAN, AND SOUTH KOREA ATTEND FIRST TRIPARTITE MEETING

Tini Tran at the Associated Press reports that the Chinese defense ministry will launch an official web site in both Chinese and English on August 1.

"The Web site appears aimed at reassuring Asian and Western nations that the PLA is becoming more accessible to the outside world, experts told the China Daily.

'As more attention is being given to online information, the Chinese army has moved one step forward in its public diplomacy,' Professor Li Xiguang, dean of Tsinghua University's journalism school, was quoted as saying.

The Web site's launch 'is a major step for the PLA to open up to the outside world,' Sr Col Huang Xueping, deputy director of the ministry's information office, said in an interview with the newspaper. The office was only set up last year.

The site will 'cover a large amount of information,' featuring regular activities and background of the Chinese military."

(h/t Sky Canaves at China Journal.) Meanwhile, the first tripartite meeting of the central banks of China, Japan, and South Korea took place today in Shenzhen.

"On December 10, 2008, in order to strengthen their mutual cooperation and communication and better safeguard economic and financial stability in the region, the three central banks jointly announced the establishment of a formal Tripartite Governors’ Meeting mechanism, based on the existing dialogue, which will take place once a year."

(h/t Rebecca Wilder at News N Economics.)

7. CLINTON SAYS US PREPARED TO EXPAND COMMERCIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH MYANMAR IF THEY RELEASE POLITICAL PRISONERS

Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post reports that Secretary Clinton told the media that the US was prepared to expand its commercial and aid relationship with Myanmar if it were to release political prisoners, and specifically Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

8. AHMADINEJAD APPARENTLY DEFYING LOTR CALL FOR HIM TO WITHDRAW VP NOMINATION, IRAN SAYS IT HAS FOUND 46 OIL FIELDS IN THE CASPIAN

Ali Akbar Dareini and Lee Keath at the Associated Press report that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has apparently chosen to defy the Leader of the Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei, who has called upon the president to withdraw his choice for first Vice President,Ahmadinejad's son-in-law.

"Arguing for a further chance to make his case, Ahmadinejad said, 'there is a need for time and another opportunity to fully explain my real feelings and assessment about Mr Mashai.'"

Dareini and Keath observe

"Now Khamenei is facing tests to his authority on two fronts. One is from Ahmadinejad, the other is the open defiance from the reformist opposition, which has continued its campaign against Ahmadinejad despite the supreme leader's declarations that the election dispute is over."

I would put it more as tests of authority from those who see the representative elements of the Constitution in their best interests and those who see it as protecting the vested interests of the old guard, but the point is salient nonetheless. Meanwhile, Xinhua reports that Iran's Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari has reportedly said that Iran has identified 46 oil fields in the Caspian Sea, of which eight are ready for exploitation immediately. (h/t Leanan at the Oil Drum.)

9. MOODY'S UPGRADES PHILLIPINE SOVEREIGN DEBT

Karl Lester M Yap at Bloomberg reports that Moody's rating on Philippine sovereign debt was raised to Ba3 from B1, the highest the country has received in more than three years.

"'The upgrade was prompted by the relatively high degree of resiliency exhibited by both the country’s financial system and external payments position in face of the global financial and economic crises,' Moody’s said. 'International reserves of the central bank are at a historical high and exceptional policy measures have not been required to shield the banking system.'

Philippine international reserves climbed to a record $39.56 billion in January, as rising remittances sent home by citizens abroad countered collapsing exports. Higher debt ratings reduce the cost of borrowing, making it easier for the Philippines to sell debt to fund government spending plans."

10. MEXICAN IMMIGRATION TO THE US HAS SLOWED MARKEDLY SINCE 2006, BUT EMIGRATION BACK TO MEXICO HOLDING STEADY

In a report released yesterday, the Pew Hispanic Center concluded that:

"The flow of immigrants from Mexico to the United States has declined sharply since mid-decade, but there is no evidence of an increase in Mexican-born migrants returning home from the US.

Survey data from the US and Mexico reveal a large flow of migrants back to Mexico, but the size of the return flow appears to be stable since 2006."

(h/t Conor Dougherty at Real Time Economics.)

11. NAR ANNOUNCES THAT EXISTING HOME SALES ROSE 3.6% IN JUNE FROM MAY, DOWN 0.2% YOY; MEDIAN PRICES DOWN 15.4% FROM JUNE 2008

Maya Jackson Randall at the Wall Street Journal writes that the National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales in June rose 3.6% from May, but are still down 0.2% from June 2008.

"Foreclosures and short sales reflect 31% of sales in June. Distressed property sales have pushed prices lower, year over year. The median price for an existing home last month was $181,800, a 15.4% decrease from June 2008."

Meanwhile, the Department of Labor announced today that seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ended July 18 were

"554,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 524,000. The 4-week moving average was 566,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's average of 585,000."

12. USDA REPORT CONCLUDES FARMERS SITTING ON GOLD MINE IN CARBON OFFSETS INCLUDED IN CLIMATE BILL

Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital writes that a new report from the Agricultural Department concludes that farmers stand to make a fortune from the carbon offsets included in the climate bill.

"To wit: Farmer’s incomes will take a hit in the short term, falling by 1% through 2018. Things will get worse by 2027 (a 3.5% decline) and even worse by 2048 (a 7.2% decline.) That’s because things like fuel and fertilizer will cost more under the climate bill.

But farmers’ net incomes will keep rising, because they will be literally standing on a gold mine in the form of carbon offsets, which will become increasingly valuable. The goods:

'EPA’s analysis projects annual net returns to farmers of about $1-2 billion per year from 2012-18, rising to $20 billion per year in 2050. USDA’s analysis strongly suggests that revenue from agricultural offsets (afforestation, soil carbon, methane reduction, nitrous oxide reductions) rise faster than costs to agriculture from cap and trade legislation. It appears that in the medium to long term, net revenue from offsets will likely overtake net costs from HR 2454, perhaps substantially.'

It might be even juicier; the EPA’s Ms. Jackson estimated the value of agricultural offsets at more than $3 billion in 2020.

And wait—there’s more. '[W]e believe our analysis is conservative--it’s quite possible farmers will actually do better,' Secretary Vilsack said.

That’s because farmers also stand to make a fortune off of other government energy policies, such as ambitious mandates for renewable energy and biofuels that will create lucrative, mandatory markets for crops and even agricultural waste."

Today's must read. The USDA report itself can be found here.

13. OCCIDENTAL FINDS SIZABLE NEW OIL FIELD IN CALIFORNIA

The Los Angeles Business Journal reports that Occidental has announced a significant oil and gas find in Kern County, California.

"The company said in a statement that it believes there are between 150 million and 250 million gross barrels of oil equivalent reserves within the area. Approximately two-thirds of the discovery is believed to be natural gas.

Occidental holds an approximate 80% stake in the property, with Chevron Corp. holding the remaining interest."

That represents about 1.8-3 global days of oil demand.

Daily Sources 7/17

1. UN SECURITY COUNCIL FREEZES ASSETS AND BANS TRAVEL FOR 10 NORTH KOREAN INDIVIDUALS AND CORPORATIONS; RECENT PUBLICATION SEEMS TO INDICATE GROWING NERVOUSNESS ABOUT PYONGYANG IN BEIJING

Colum Lynch at the Washington Post reports that the UN Security Council yesterday froze assets and banned the travel of 10 North Korean individuals and corporations involved in the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Meanwhile, the Fabius Maximus blog notes two recent articles which reporting on a piece by Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School in Beijing, this month in World Affairs magazine, which is sponsored by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which seem to indicate rising concern in Beijing about the possibility of armed conflict with Pyongyang.

2. MARATHON TO SELL 20% OF ANGOLAN CONCESSION TO CNOOC AND SINOPEC, US COMMERCE SECY SAYS AMERICANS NEED TO REALIZE THAT THEIR CONSUMPTION IS DRIVING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OVERSEAS

Platts reports that Marathon has signed an agreement to sell a 20% stake in Angola's block 32 concession to CNOOC and Sinopec for $1.3 billion, maintaining a 10% stake in the project.

"There is no doubting the prolific nature of the deepwater block they are buying into. Block 32 has already seen a mouth-watering 12 oil discoveries: Gindungo, Canela, Cola, Gengibre, Mostarda, Salsa, Caril, Manjericao, Louro, Cominhos, Colorau and Alho."

"Block 32 is operated by France's Total, which has a 30% stake. The remaining equity is owned by Sonangol (20%), ExxonMobil (15%) and Portugal's Petrogal (5%).

The existing partners in the block have the right of first refusal over the interest Marathon is selling."

Marathon has stated it hopes to conclude the deal by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital reports that the US Commerce Secretary, Gary Locke, told the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai yesterday:

"It’s important that those who consume the products being made all around the world to the benefit of America--and it’s our own consumption activity that’s causing the emission of greenhouse gases, then quite frankly Americans need to pay for that."

3. CHINA SHUTS DOWN HUMAN RIGHTS LEGAL CENTER IN BEIJING

Audra Ang at the Associated Press reports that Chinese officials shut down a legal research center led by human rights activist lawyers in Beijing today. In late May it was reported that Beijing had begun denying licenses to practice to law firms which take human rights cases--see Daily Sources 5/28 #1.

4. SOUTH KOREA TO SPEND $100 MILLION IN AID TO ASIAN NATIONS COPING WITH WATER SHORTAGES AND FLOODS

Shinhye Kang and Heejin Koo at Bloomberg report that South Korea plans to spend $100 million by 2012 to help Asian nations deal with water shortages and floods.

"Asia, with half the world’s population, has less available fresh water than any continent except Antarctica, Suzanne DiMaggio, director at the Asia Society, said in April. Glacier runoff is the primary water source for many nations in the region, and they are shrinking with climate change.

'Asian countries have depended on Himalayan glaciers as their main water sources may face water shortage as the glaciers are melting rapidly,' said Park, who also directs the nation’s task force on international cooperation at the Presidential Committee on Green Growth.

South Korea’s government announced a plan last month to spend 22.2 trillion won (~$17.7 billion) over four years to upgrade the water quality and supply systems of the nation’s four major rivers."

5. BP DROPS JATROPHA

Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital reports that BP has abandoned its jatropha venture, from which it had hoped to harvest biodiesel, selling its half of the project to its partner, D1 Oils.

"[T]he inedible but hardy plant that just a few years ago seemed like it could revolutionize biofuels has turned into a bust. The initial attraction was that it grows on marginal land, so it wouldn’t compete with food crops. But marginal land means marginal yields. And jatropha turned out to be a water hog as well, further darkening its environmental credentials."

The joint venture had planted more than 200,000 hectares of jatropha, about a quarter of worldwide jatropha planting. New Delhi has also bet on the plant's potential only to see protests break out over plans to reclassify land for seeding it--see Daily Sources 6/9 #6.

6. EASTERN EUROPEAN DIGNITARIES PUBLISH OPEN LETTER EXPRESSING SOME WORRY ABOUT OBAMA'S "RESET" WITH MOSCOW

Yesterday the Polish Gazeta Wyborcza published an open letter from 22 major political figures from Eastern Europe, including Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel indicating worry about the Obama administration's "reset" policy with Russia. Key excerpts:

"Our hopes that relations with Russia would improve and that Moscow would finally fully accept our complete sovereignty and independence after joining NATO and the EU have not been fulfilled. Instead, Russia is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and methods. At a global level, Russia has become, on most issues, a status-quo power. But at a regional level and vis-a-vis our nations, it increasingly acts as a revisionist one. It challenges our claims to our own historical experiences. It asserts a privileged position in determining our security choices. It uses overt and covert means of economic warfare, ranging from energy blockades and politically motivated investments to bribery and media manipulation in order to advance its interests and to challenge the transatlantic orientation of Central and Eastern Europe.

We welcome the 'reset' of the American-Russian relations. As the countries living closest to Russia, obviously nobody has a greater interest in the development of the democracy in Russia and better relations between Moscow and the West than we do. But there is also nervousness in our capitals. We want to ensure that too narrow an understanding of Western interests does not lead to the wrong concessions to Russia. Today the concern is, for example, that the United States and the major European powers might embrace the Medvedev plan for a 'Concert of Powers' to replace the continent's existing, value-based security structure. The danger is that Russia's creeping intimidation and influence-peddling in the region could over time lead to a de facto neutralization of the region. There are differing views within the region when it comes to Moscow's new policies. But there is a shared view that the full engagement of the United States is needed."

"When it comes to Russia, our experience has been that a more determined and principled policy toward Moscow will not only strengthen the West's security but will ultimately lead Moscow to follow a more cooperative policy as well. Furthermore, the more secure we feel inside NATO, the easier it will also be for our countries to reach out to engage Moscow on issues of common interest. That is the dual track approach we need and which should be reflected in the new NATO strategic concept."

"[T]he thorniest issue may well be America's planned missile-defense installations. Here too, there are different views in the region, including among our publics which are divided. Regardless of the military merits of this scheme and what Washington eventually decides to do, the issue has nevertheless also become--at least in some countries--a symbol of America's credibility and commitment to the region. How it is handled could have a significant impact on their future transatlantic orientation. The small number of missiles involved cannot be a threat to Russia's strategic capabilities, and the Kremlin knows this. We should decide the future of the program as allies and based on the strategic pluses and minuses of the different technical and political configurations. The Alliance should not allow the issue to be determined by unfounded Russian opposition. Abandoning the program entirely or involving Russia too deeply in it without consulting Poland or the Czech Republic can undermine the credibility of the United States across the whole region."

A must read.

7. TURMENISTAN SIGNS DEAL WITH GERMAN NABUCCO PARTNER FOR GAS EXPLORATION, EC PROPOSES NEW RULES FOR EU FOR HANDLING NAT GAS DISRUPTIONS

AFP reports that Turkmenistan signed a deal with RWE--a German firm involved in the Nabucco pipeline project--giving it a license to explore a block for six years and after finding gas the right to extract it for a period of 25 years.

"Moscow has a virtual monopoly on the export of Turkmen gas through its state-run energy giant Gazprom, but there have been signs of strain recently between the two countries ... .'"

Ashgabat publicly accused Gazprom of blowing up a pipeline sending its gas through Russia in order to put an end to payments it had contracted for at exorbitant prices late last year. In late June, Turkmenistan also inked a deal to increase its natural gas exports to China by 30%. On the first of July, Turmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov invited Russian President Medvedev to Ashgabat to discuss the resumption of exports--see Daily Sources 7/1 #3. Meanwhile, Alessandro Torello at the Wall Street Journal reports that the European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that the European Union is prepared to weather a disruption in gas supplies such as the one caused by the cut off of supplies through Ukraine by Russia at the start of the year. The rules are designed, in part, to allow the EU to respond as a single entity to future disruptions.

"Under the proposals, each of the EU's 27 countries would have to designate an authority to look after security of their gas supplies, preparing plans aimed at preventing disruptions and dealing with any shortages that arise. The new rules would give the commission--the EU's executive arm--authority to ask for changes to these national plans if it considered them 'not effective' or incompatible with those of other EU countries.

The European Parliament and the 27 EU governments must back the proposal before it becomes law. Talks are expected to take months and might lead to a watered-down version of the rules."

8. OIL STOCKPILES IN ASIA BEING DRAWN DOWN ON LOW REFINERY UTILIZATION

Yuji Okada at Bloomberg reports that oil stockpiles in Asia are being drawn down on low refinery utilization rates.

"The fuel oil inventory in Singapore, Asia’s biggest oil-trading center, was 14.1 million barrels in the week ended July 15, 38% lower than a year earlier, said International Enterprise Singapore, a unit of the trade ministry. Refiners in South Korea and Japan are cutting crude throughput after the recession reduced demand, leading to high product stockpiles and reduced margins.

'The narrowing fuel oil crack in Singapore was mainly caused by the refinery run cut among Asian refiners, particularly ones in Japan and South Korea,' said Akira Kamiyama, a Tokyo-based trader at Mitsui & Co. 'Refinery utilization rates in these countries have been around 70%, while rates in the U.S. have been close to 90%.'

The refinery operating rate in Japan was 64.1% for the week ended June 20 and rose to 70% for the week ended July 11., according to the Petroleum Association of Japan."

10. EIGHT KILLED IN BOMB BLASTS IN TWO JAKARTAN HOTELS

John Aglionby at the Washington Post reports that eight people were killed in bomb blasts in two hotels in Jakarta.

"Speaking from the presidential palace in a live television address, the angry and visibly shaken president said the attackers were irresponsible and inhumane. While their identities remained unknown, the president said, the government will 'use the full extent of the law' to bring to justice 'those who did it, those who helped them, and the masterminds.'

Yudhoyono--who was reelected July 8 by a wide margin and is set to begin a second five-year term--said it was too early to say whether the bombing was linked to Jemaah Islamiah. But other officials and independent analysts said the radical Islamist group or an offshoot is the likeliest suspect."

11. KURDISH LEADERS WARN OF ARMED CONFLICT WITH BAGHDAD, IRAQI CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT BELIEVES IRANIAN CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT UNDERMINED BY ELECTIONS, RAFSANJANI USES FRIDAY SERMON TO CRITICIZE ELECTION RESULTS

Anthony Shadid at the Washington Post reports that the Kurdish Prime Minister, Nechirvan Barzani, said in an interview that

"If the problems are not solved [with the Maliki administration] and we're not sitting down together, then the risk of military confrontation will emerge."

Interviews with the Prime Minister and President Massoud Barzani

"described a stalemate in attempts to resolve long-standing disputes with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's emboldened government. Had it not been for the presence of the U.S. military in northern Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani said, fighting might have started in the most volatile regions."

Well worth reading in full. Meanwhile, Anthony Shadid at the Washington Post reports that the clerical elite in Iraq believes that the election crisis in Iran has strengthened the religious credibility of their own at the expense of the Shi'a leadership in Iran.

"'It's true,' said Ghaith Shubar, a cleric who runs a foundation in Najaf aligned with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's most powerful cleric. 'The spiritual guidance of the people in Iraq has become stronger than the guidance offered under the system in Iran. The marjaiya'--the term used to describe the authority of the most senior ayatollahs--'has more influence in Iraq, spiritual and otherwise, than it does in Iran.'"

The article--well worth reading--concludes with the following statement by Ali al-Waadh, a cleric and representative of Sistani's near the Kadhimiyah shrine in Baghdad, "We're not following Iran; Iran should follow Najaf." (Najaf is where Khomeini himself penned much of his criticisms of the Shah.) I alluded to some of the consequences of the supremacy of the Koran in Iran's legal and political system, given the relative lack of religious credentials of the Leader of the Revolution in a post early last year Law and Revolution in Iran. Meanwhile, in today's Friday prayer sermon, Rafsanjani said the following per a post at the Revolutionary Road blog:

"I have some suggestions. I have spoken to some members of the the expediency council and the assembly of experts about them too.

We must bring back the trust of the people. First of all, everyone must accept the law. The people, the parliament, everyone.

We must create a condition so that everyone can speak. We must speak logically. And a part of this is on the shoulders of the broadcasting corporation.

The Guardian Council did not make good use of the extra fives days given to them by the leader.

We do not need people in prison for this. Let’s allow them to return to their families."

On Wednesday, Borzou Daragahi at the Los Angeles Times reported that respect for the Leader of the Revolution has been diminished in Iran itself after taking sides in the election:

"'Public respect for him has been significantly damaged,' said one analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'Opposing him is no longer the same as opposing God.'"

Protests followed Rafsanjani's sermon which were reportedly put down by security troops.

12. OLMERT SAYS SETTLEMENTS A SIDE ISSUE

Former Prime Minister of Isreal, Ehud Olmert, has an opinion piece in the Washington Post which argues that the current focus on Isreali settlements misplaces the focus of the peace talks. Key excerpt:

"Yet today, instead of a political process, the issue of settlement construction commands the agenda between the United States and Israel. This is a mistake that serves neither the process with the Palestinians nor relations between Israel and the Arab world. Moreover, it has the potential to greatly shake US-Israeli relations."

Worth reading.

13. SUDAN ACCUSES CHAD OF LAUNCHING AIR RAIDS INTO WESTERN SUDAN, ADDITIONAL MEASURES AGREED TO BY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SUDANESE OFFICIALS IN ANTICIPATION OF HAGUE RULING

AFP reports that the cross border conflict between Chad and Sudan is heating up again. Yesterday, state-Sudanese media reported that Chad had launched air raids in western Darfur.

"The website, quoting senior military officials, said there were no causalities but that the Sudanese army was on 'standby' and waiting for 'the green light for retaliation'."

Meanwhile, BBC News reports that southern and northern interlocutors in Sudan have agreed to new measures to quell any violence that could erupt in response to the Hague ruling on the border between the two regions expected next Thursday. The UN peacekeeping presence will be increased in the south, and both sides will send officials to explain the ruling once it is handed down.

"Tensions are rising ahead of national elections put back until April 2010 and a referendum on whether the south should secede, due in 2011."

In early June both sides began demobilizing their troops and on June 24th the two sides agreed to abide by the Hague's ruling--see Daily Sources 6/24 #10.

14. PETROECUADOR SEIZES PERENCO OILFIELDS, CHILE SIGNS CONTRACT FOR ECUADORIAN SUPPLY

Stephan Kueffner and Matthew Campbell at Bloomberg reports that PetroEcuador has seized the oilfields of Perenco SA, which operated the block 7 and 21 concessions producing about 21 kb/d.

"Perenco said yesterday it would suspend production after Ecuador started expropriating its crude oil in March because of a dispute over $327 million in back taxes. Ecuador, which increased a windfall tax on oil to 99% in October 2007, has said that Perenco and other companies haven’t paid the full levy, which has since been cut to 70%."

Perenco SA is an independent international oil firm whose main offices are in London and Paris with annual revenues of about $3 billion. Meanwhile, Tom Azzopardi at Platts reports that ENAP, Chile's national oil company, has signed a deal with PetroEcuador to import 800,000 barrels a month (~ 26.7 kb/d) to up to 10 million barrels a year (27.4 kb/d) of crude.

"Shipments are due to begin next month with two shiploads of 400,000
barrels each to Chilean ports ... ."

ENAP is the only refiner in Chile with a capacity of about 230 kb/d. Chile produces about 11 kb/d of its own crude needs. Ecuador stopped making payments on its sovereign debt on December 12 and later in that month pressured its social security system to purchase $1.2 billion in new bonds--see Daily Sources 12/29 #14. Ecuador currently uses the US dollar as its currency.

15. MEXICAN CENTRAL BANK CUTS BENCHMARK RATE TO 4.5%

Jens Erik Gould and Hugh Collins at Bloomberg reports that Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 4.5% in the seventh consecutive month of cuts. The bank's statement from the board indicated it will henceforth "pause its current monetary easing cycle" and that "[a]n improved performance in the general economic activity is expected in the second half of the year."

"Mexico’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.74% in June, the lowest in nine months. While the rate was within the central bank’s forecast of 5.5% to 6% in the second quarter, it was above policy makers’ forecast of no more than 5.25% for the third quarter.

The bank aims to meet its inflation target of 3% by the end of 2010."

Remittances from abroad contracted by 20% in May, the sharpest drop on record.

16. NEW BUILDING PERMITS & HOUSING STARTS UP STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT

Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture notes that new building permits in June were 8.7% (±3.0%) above May and that housing starts were up 3.6% (±11.3%). He comments:

"The year-over-year data is much clearer: New Starts down 46% [±4.3%], Permits down 52% [±3.6%]."

He links to a Barron's Econoday graph: