Daily Sources 6/17

1. JAPAN TO FINANCE CLEAN ENERGY EXPORTS

Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital notes that Japan plans to underwrite the switch of other countries to clean energy, but only if they use Japanese technology. Johnson quotes from a report from Bloomberg:

"Japan plans to offer loans to power producers in the US and Australia that buy so-called clean coal generators from Japanese manufacturers, according to a government document obtained by Bloomberg News. Funding from state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation would help drive sales of the plants that cost about $3.1 billion apiece, said a senior trade ministry official involved in producing the 113-page draft plan, due to be released today."

2. RUSSIA & CHINA RELEASE JOINT STATEMENT EXPRESSING CONCERN RE: NORTH KOREA

Steve Gutterman at the Associated Press reports that Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russia's Dmitry Medvedev issued a joint statement today after meeting in Moscow:

"expressed serious concern in connection with the situation on the Korean peninsula."

"Hu and Medvedev called for the 'swiftest renewal' of the talks involving their countries as well as North and South Korea, Japan and the United States, which broke down months ago.

The statement included no new initiatives on the mounting problem and used language that appeared aimed at avoiding raise North Korea's ire further."

3. US EXPLORING RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION IN MISSILE SHIELD SCHEME

Walter Pincus at the Washington Post reports that Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn III told Congress yesterday that the US is considering ways to incorporate Russia into a missile defense system for Europe.

"Lynn said that a radar installation in Armavir in southern Russia 'would provide helpful early-warning detection in the case of an Iranian ballistic missile attack.' [Lt. Gen. Patrick] O'Reilly [director of the Missile Defense Agency] told the panel that he had visited a Russian radar facility at Gabala, Azerbaijan, and that both Russian radars would be helpful in monitoring Iranian missile tests. The data gained 'would significantly help our development of our missile defenses,' O'Reilly added.

Overall, Lynn said, 'the involvement of Russian assets, particularly Russian radars, would enhance the capability of that kind of European-based system.'

He also suggested another potential advantage of including Moscow in the effort: 'A US-Russian collaboration would have an additional benefit of a diplomatic signaling to the Iranians that this is an unacceptable course for them to pursue and that they will face a concerted international front, should they proceed down that path.'"

Confirmation, as far as I'm concerned, that the Obama administration is putting the squeeze on Iran by pursuing a "reboot" in relations with Moscow.

4. BRIC SUMMIT ENDS WITH JOINT STATEMENT CALLING FOR LARGER SAY IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, RUSSIA AND CHINA AGREE TO EXPLORE MORE SETTLEMENT IN DOMESTIC CURRENCIES IN BILATERAL TRADE, BUT GAZPROM ANNOUNCES GAS PIPELINE TO CHINA DELAYED BY NO AGREEMENT ON PRICE, AND LUKOIL VP CALLS FOR MOSCOW TO JOIN OPEC

Andrew Osborne at the Wall Street Journal reports that the BRIC countries released a joint statement following their summit yesterday in Ekaterinburg saying:

"The emerging and developing economies must have greater voice and representation in international financial institutions. There is a strong need for a stable, predictable and more diversified international monetary system."

Meanwhile, Lyubov Pronina and Alex Nicholson at Bloomberg report that following their bilateral meeting in Moscow of President Hu Jintao said that they agreed to expand the use of the yuan and ruble in settling bilateral trade between the two countries. Medvedev told reporters:

"We agreed to take further steps in this direction, including, perhaps, by adjusting contracts and laws that already exist."

However, Vladimir Soldatkin at Reuters reports that Gazprom deputy chief executive Alexander Ananenkov told a news conference that construction on natural gas pipelines to China have been delayed, as "it still cannot reach a pricing deal with Beijing." Further differences in perceived interests between Russia and China were illustrated by the comments by Lukoil VP Leonid Fedun made in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper reported in Reuters,

"Russia should join OpEC and move to direct contracts. Then we will jointly control 51% of world output and we can dictate the price by directive."

5. ACCESS TO CHINESE STIMULUS PROGRAM MONIES REQUIRES PREFERENCE FOR CHINESE FIRMS

Ian Johnson at the Wall Street Journal reports that a recent directive issued by various central government agencies, including from the National Reform and Development Commission, seems to require that projects receiving stimulus-mandated funds give preference to Chinese companies.

"The notice, dated May 26 but only posted on the commission's Web site this month, is part of a broader buy-local push in recent months by authorities, who have quietly been indicating that most of the two-year four trillion yuan ($588 billion) in stimulus spending will be aimed at Chinese companies.

'Apart from engineering goods or service that cannot be obtained under reasonable business conditions inside China, domestic products should be purchased for the government investment program,' according to the official notice."

6. LACK OF INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY IN CHINA LEAVES JUSTICE SYSTEM MORE VULNERABLE TO MOB RULE

Sky Canaves at China Journal notes that the lack of an independent judiciary in China works both ways:

"But nowadays, courts also seem to take guidance from below.

Deng Yujiao, a young hotel worker charged with killing a local official (who she alleged tried to rape her), was set free yesterday after a brief trial and the murder charges against her dismissed, a result that is being cited as a 'significant victory of the Chinese Internet users and Chinese democracy.'

The unofficial precedents for the outcome of Deng’s case can be seen in a couple of other cases from last year that pitted the small guy against perceived official privilege. Xu Ting, a young migrant worker who took advantage of a faulty ATM to withdraw a load of cash and then ran away, was tried and sentenced to life in prison. But Internet users noted that officials charged with corruption involving similar sums (175,000 yuan) would face much lighter penalties, sparking a media outcry that resulted in a retrial and a much shorter sentence of five years for Xu."

The problem of course is that the law is supposed to act as a barrier to mob rule, not to simply preside over judgments made by rumor and innuendo.

7. IN CENTRAL ASIA FINANCIAL CRISIS MAY DRIVE IMMIGRATION

Erica Alini at Real Time Economics notes that in a recent report by the Central Asia-Caucasus institute, "anecdotal evidence suggests that since the world economy nose-dived last fall, 'a higher number of young men bought one-way tickets to Russian cities in November 2008 through January 2009.'"

"Russia is a prime destination for migrant laborers from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, where remittances account for between 8% and nearly 50% of the national income. Thus, as the Russian economy started contracting amidst the economic downturn last year, Central Asia felt the pinch.

When the downturn poked the Russian housing bubble, Central Asian migrants were hit particularly hard because many of them work in construction, Willem Van Eeghen, a migration expert at the World Bank, said.

By December 2008 remittances were down by nearly half in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, according Ms. Marat.

Uncharacteristically, though, the plunge in remittances seems to be pushing even more Tajiks, Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks toward Russia. That’s because many of them seem to think that home offers no prospect, even as things get tough abroad. "

8. SOUTH KOREAN LNG IMPORTS DOWN 41% YOY

Jonty Rushforth at Platts reports that South Korean LNG imports are down 41% year on year in May to 1.26 million metric tons from 2.13 million metric tons.

"They were also down 28.6% from April this year, when the country imported 1.76 million mt."

Not a green shoot.

9. NIGERIAN NIGER DELTA MILITANT TO ACCEPT AMNESTY OFFER

The BBC reports that one of Nigeria's militant leaders of the Niger Delta, Ateke Tom, has accepted, with provisions, the offer of the President to extend amnesty to those militants who lay down their weapons.

"'If the government is sincere, we are ready to lay down our arms,' Mr Tom told the BBC's Network Africa program.

'If the government is not sincere, we will not lay down our arms and the struggle will continue.'

President Yar'Adua first made the offer of an amnesty several weeks ago.

'It will be a great pleasure for me to personally accept the first militant leader to take advantage of the amnesty,' he said."

11. IEA CHIEF ECONOMIST SUGGESTS THAT $70/B OIL LIKELY TO TRANSLATE INTO INTEREST RATE HIKES ON INFLATION, BUT CPI DOWN 1.3% IN MAY YOY

Eurointelligence reports that Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the IEA, suggested that $70/b oil will lead to inflationary pressures, which will force central banks to raise their benchmark interest rates and undermine any nascent recovery. In the meantime, Brian Blackstone at the Wall Street Journal reports that the Labor Department announced that the consumer price index rose 0.1% in May from April; core CPI, which excludes both energy and food prices, also rose from May by 0.1%.

"Consumer prices fell 1.3% compared to one year ago, the largest 12-month decline since April 1950. That's way below the 2% annual rate of inflation that most Fed officials think is consistent with their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Earlier this month, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said that after once favoring 1.5% as an inflation objective, 'I think if I now had to write down a number, I'd probably write 2%.'"

Sarah-Jane Belfield at Platts reports that demand for jet fuel in April fell month over month by 1.67% to 1.418 billion gallons, per the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The drop from a year previous was 6.96%. Not a green shoot.

12. EIA ANNOUNCES CRUDE STOCKS DOWN, BUT REFINERY UTILIZATION FLAT, ARE STOCKS AT SEA SIMPLY BEING RESTOCKED?

The EIA reported that commercial crude stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week ended June 12 to 357.7 million barrels--well above the historical range for this time of year, but well down from previous highs. Gasoline stocks, on the other hand, built by 3.4 million barrels, and are just below the historical range for this time of year. Distillate stocks grew by 300,000 barrels, and remain at levels well above the historical range. Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville asks whether or not floating oil storage has been restocked, and not unloaded due to a shrinking contango.

"This certainly would explain the larger than expected crude draw in the face of unchanged refinery utilization, and only a small rise in imports."

13. DOE DECIDES ON COMPANIES TO RECEIVE $18.5 BILLION IN FEDERAL LOAN GUARANTEES TO BUILD FIRST NEW NUCLEAR REACTORS IN THE US IN 30 YEARS

Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital reports that the Department of Energy has settled on the first companies which will receive $18.5 billion in federal loan guarantees to help build four new nuclear reactors--the first to be built in the US in three decades. The winners are UniStar Nuclear Energy, NRG Energy Inc., Scana Corp and Southern Co.

"As the WSJ notes, 'Foreign partners that might be able to contribute loans or equity were also considered a plus.' For instance, UniStar hopes to get the French government to kick in $10 billion; NRG wants the Japanese government to underwrite one-third of its costs.

The $18.5 billion in loan guarantees is a small fraction of the $122 billion that nuclear companies had applied for."