Daily Sources 8/3

1. EUROPE RETURNING TO NUCLEAR POWER

Kate Mackenzie at FT Energy Source has a good summary of the nuclear renaissance in Europe--where several countries have reversed, or are in the process of reversing, decisions to eliminate nuclear power from the generation mix.

2. TBLISI SAYS MOSCOW ATTEMPTING LAND GRAB FROM SOUTH OSSETIA

Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili at the Associated Press reports that Tblisi today accused Russia of attempting to take more territory outside the breakaway province of South Ossetia.

"'It's very alarming that as the first anniversary of the Russian aggression against Georgia comes close, Russia and its puppets are deliberately inciting tensions and behave defiantly,' the Georgian Foreign Ministry said.

But South Ossetia's spokeswoman Irina Gagloyeva told The Associated Press that the border move was legitimate and rejected any land-grabbing ambitions.

'Let the Georgians relax about their territory. We don't need a single centimeter of their soil,' Gagloyeva said."

3. CHINESE CRUDE STOCKS FALL 2.7% IN JUNE FROM MAY, REFINERIES PRODUCED 7.77 MB/D

Jim Bai and Aizhu Chen at Reuters write that Xinhua reported that Chinese crude stocks fell by 2.7% in June from May to 275 million barrels.

"Chinese refineries boosted production by 6% in June to a record 7.77 mb/d after a rise in domestic motor fuel prices aided margins."

4. TOKYO CONCERNED BY SLATE OF IRANIAN NEWS OF NEW CHINESE-IRANIAN OIL DEALS

Kyodo News reports that Tokyo has responded to the news aired in Iran that CNPC was to take a 70% share in South Azadegan, a field which Japan had secured interest earlier but dropped it on international concern about Tehran's nuclear program, by calling for renewed international cooperation on the issue. Japanese Vice Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Harufumi Mochizuki said "It is not desirable that international cooperation collapses this way." CNPC on Friday had denied that a new MOU regarding the field had been signed--see Daily Sources 7/31 #7. Tamsin Carlisle at the National reports that on Saturday a Chinese consortium signed a deal to build a new 360 kb/d refinery in Khuzestan province and expand the capacity of a refinery in Abadan to 360 kb/d from 210 kb/d. Carlisle provides a decent summary of Chinese-Iranian energy deals this year and further in the past as well as different details on the CNPC Azadegan deal:

"The agreement called for CNPC to purchase a 63% stake in the $2.5bn project from NIOC, leaving the Iranian state oil company with a 27% interest and Japan’s Inpex with 10%."

5. INDIA AND CHINA TO COOPERATE ON MONITORING HIMALAYAN MELTING GLACIERS

James Lamont at the Financial Times reports that India and China will collaborate on monitoring melting glaciers in the Himalayas, a crucial source of water supply for both countries.

"Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, said academic research bodies on both sides would share information. He also told the FT that New Delhi was also open to a dialogue about water resources with Beijing, saying the two countries had shared concerns."

6. SAUDI ARAMCO TO CUT PRICES, OPEC PRODUCING SLIGHTLY MORE IN JULY FROM JUNE

Christian Schmollinger at Bloomberg report that Saudi Aramco may cut the price of Arab Light crude oil by as average of $1.30/b,

"according to a survey of refiners from South Korea, Japan, Singapore and India. The company is expected to set new official levels this week. Extra Light may fall by $1.40/b, said the traders who asked not to be identified, citing confidentiality agreements.

Saudi Arabian Oil, known as Saudi Aramco, last month raised Arab Light by 10 cents to a premium of $1.50/b to the average of Persian Gulf benchmark’s Oman and Dubai. That was the highest price since July 2008. Asian refiners have been reducing their output as falling consumer demand has cut their so-called crack spreads, or profit margins."

Meanwhile, Karyn Peterson and Mark Shenk at Bloomberg report that the news wire's latest survey showed that OPEC increased oil output by 45kb/d to 28.39 mb/d in July from June."The 11 OPEC members with quotas ... pumped 26.035 mb/d, 1.19 million more than their target."

"Iran, the member that’s least compliant with output limits, according to the survey, expects oil prices to reach $80/b by the end of the year on 'optimistic' signs in the market, the country’s OPEC Governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, said.

Angola increased production by 20,000 barrels to 1.81 mb/d. The gain left output 293,000 barrels above the nation’s target, the second-biggest excess in the group. Output in the African country surpassed Nigeria’s for the first time since June 2008.

Venezuela raised output by 10,000 barrels to 2.21 mb/d. The South American country pumped 224 kb/d above its target of 1.986 million last month, the survey showed."

7. 100 IRANIAN POLITICIANS PUT ON TRIAL FOR FOMENTING UNREST IN COOPERATION WITH FOREIGNERS, LOTR FORMERLY INAUGURATES AHMADINEJAD'S SECOND TERM

Borzou Daragahi at the LA Times reported yesterday that Iran put 100 prominent politicians on trial, charging them with fomenting unrest in conspiracy with foreigners.

"Analysts say the confessions read at the trials are meant to lift the morale of hard-liners upset by coverage by reformist news outlets and Persian-language news channels abroad as well as to frighten opponents and take the wind out of the sails of the protest movement.

But as night fell, Tehran, the capital, erupted in angry cries of 'Allahu Akbar!' or 'God is great!' in what has become a daily rooftop ritual of protest."

The nighttime chants deliberately mirror events of the 1979 revolution. Thomas Erdbrink at the Washington Post reports that today Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was inaugurated by Leader of the Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as president for a second term. Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rafsanjani all elected not to attend the ceremony.

"Relatives of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, also failed to show up. According to pro-opposition Web sites, Hassan Khomeini, a grandson who usually attends such ceremonies, left for Pakistan some days ago. Other prominent absentees were two Friday prayer leaders from the Shiite holy city of Qom, the Parlemannews Web site reported."

8. NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL UNTAPPED, LEAVING FOOD SUPPLY VULNERABLE

David Hecht at the Washington Post notes that Nigeria's food supply is especially vulnerable to a disruption caused by low rainfall or other climate-driven variables. He concludes:

"The good news is that Nigeria has boundless agricultural potential. Of the 3.14 million irrigable hectares of land in the country, the World Bank says only 7% is currently being utilized. And though large tracts of farmland have been lost to desertification, more than half the country's estimated 98 million hectares of arable land currently lie fallow.

'The opportunities for our farmers are enormous if only they were to get the right institutional support,' said Sabo Nanono, the head of Kano state's commercial farmers association. 'We could feed the entire West African region; we could produce enough rice in just two or three [of Nigeria's 36] states to feed the nation and even to export.'

Somehow, the supply chain that feeds 140 million people keeps cranking along. The country has not seen a major famine for nearly four decades, since the Biafran civil war. But Nanono warned that it wouldn't take much to send this vulnerable country--and region--over the edge.

'The reality is that if the rains are bad throughout the region or the price of inputs became unaffordable, there could be massive food shortages, and neither the government nor any other institution stands ready to help,' he said. 'Then only God could save us.'"

Hecht's report is part of the Food Insecurity Project.

9. SOUTH AFRICAN PMI DOWN TO 37.3 IN JULY

Nasreen Seria at Bloomberg reports that South Africa's PMI fell to 37.3 in July from 37.9 in June. It is the first fall in PMI seen in three months.

"Manufacturing output, which makes up 15% of the economy, fell 17.1% in May from a year ago, after dropping a record 21.8% in the previous month, the statistics office said on July 9. Production has dropped every month since October 2008."

10. SETSER AND ZIEMBA ESTIMATE MAJOR SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS HOLD ABOUT $1.5 TRILLION IN FOREIGN ASSETS, DOWN FROM $1.8 TRILLION LAST YEAR

Brad Setser and Rachel Ziemba at Follow the Money estimate, in contrast to other estimates, that total external assets of major sovereign wealth funds roughly were about $1.5 trillion as of June 2009, down from their estimate of roughly $1.8 trillion held in the middle of 2008.

"$1.5 trillion is lot of money. But it is substantially less than $7 trillion or so held as traditional foreign exchange reserves."

The post includes an extremely interesting table of estimated assets held by each major sovereign wealth funds at the bottom.

11. 1.5 MILLION TO EXHAUST INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, 1-IN-3 GROCERY SHOPPERS NOW ONLY PURCHASE ITEMS ON SALE

Barry Ritholtz has a pair of posts looking at the rate of people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance. In the first, he notes that the New York Times estimates that about 1.5 million more people will have exhausted their unemployment insurance over the course of the next few months. He links to a helpful graph from the NY Times:



In the second, he notes, as have others such as Rebecca Wilder at News and Economics, that there are additional unemployment programs available after one exhausts the initial unemployment insurance:

"[T]he Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) which is good for 20 weeks. Then, there is the Supplemental EUC, which depending upon what your state thinks of the Federal largesse of handing out money to the recently unemployed, ranges anywhere from 13 to 20 more weeks."

Evidently, as of July 11, the number of people who have exhausted their initial unemployment insurance and are now on EUC or supplemental EUC, has gone from 127,000 a year ago to 2.66 million. The worry is that given that 70% of the economy is based on household consumption, growing unemployment will undermine any nascent recovery. In that vein, Credit Bubble Stocks notes that Information Resources Inc. has published market research which concludes that now

"about 1 in 3 [grocery] shoppers buy exclusively items on sale, twice as many as 18 months ago."

12. US PMI UP TO 48.9 IN JULY

Mark Shenk at Bloomberg reports that the Institute for Supply Management released its PMI today showing an uptick to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June. (A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.) It is the highest reading seen since August 2008.

13. CHEVRON TO END ALL ONSHORE GAS DRILLING IN THE US

I missed the interesting factoid reported Friday by the Associated Press that Chevron will stop all US onshore gas rigs on low profitability this year.

"'By the end of the year, we will not have a single gas land-rig running,' George Kirkland, Chevron’s executive vice president for global upstream and gas said in a conference call."