Thursday, October 2, 2008

Spot Life CL Nov '08 (wk 1)

Heh ... well if you remember the spot life of CL Oct 08 ended with a bang--a $16.37/b price increase to $120.92/b. (Traders were caught short and got squeezed.) But the very contract in sequence, CL Nov 08, had only gone to $109.37/b, a $6.62/b rise, large, but not in the historic fashion of its predecessor. This meant that people saw the price of oil go up $16.37 one day and down $14.31 the next, but reports merely saying that the price had only gone down $2.76 ... must of been confusing to the layman, eh?

Here is the reported causes table (sorry my trading week is a day longer than usual) but I doubt that the markets are behaving in a rational way ... or even if they are being moved by news of one sort or another. From my remove it seems as if the financial crisis has created a bit of feeling of terror behind those trading screens, but it is from a far remove. In the medium term, I think the fundamentals are signaling that the price must go down.

Still looks to me that oil is leading the Euro, not the other way around, but whatever ...

Forward Differentials ... nearly back to perfect contango again. Differentials look like they're widening.

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