Daily Sources 7/29

1. UN WARNS THAT DEVELOPED WORLD WILL FACE WATER PROBLEMS DRIVEN BY GLOBAL WARNING AND OUTLINES GRIM SCENARIO FOR DEVELOPING WORLD

Thalif Deen at IPS reports that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon yesterday said that

"The United States, Spain, Australia and the Netherlands are likely to face the consequences of climate change resulting in water-related disasters, including droughts, floods, hurricanes and sea-level rise.

'Even the world's richest nations are not immune,' UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned Tuesday.

Citing official US figures, he said the state of California, the world's fifth largest economy, 'could see prime farmland reduced to a dustbowl, and major cities running out of water by the end of the century'.

Blaming it on the negative impact of global warming, he said that climate is changing--globally. 'And so, therefore, must we.'

He quoted scientists as saying that by 2020, 75 to 250 million people in Africa will face growing shortages of water due to climate change.

'Yields from rain-fed agriculture could fall by half in some African countries in the next 10 years. These are frightening scenarios,' he declared."

(h/t Aqua Blog Maven at Aquafornia.)

2. JAPANESE RETAIL SALES DOWN 3% YOY IN JUNE

Toru Fujioka at Bloomberg reports that Japanese retail sales fell 3% year over year in June, from May they fell 0.3%.

"'The worst is over but that doesn’t completely wipe out households’ concerns,' said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. 'Japan’s recovery will be weak until a pickup in jobs and wages boosts consumer spending.'"

3. CHINA CUTS GASOLINE AND DIESEL PRICES

Wan Zhihong at China Daily reports that Beijing has cut the prices of gasoline and diesel by 220 yuan per ton or 3%, effective today.

"This equals price cut of 0.16 yuan per liter in gasoline prices (~$0.089/gallon) and 0.19 yuan per liter (~$0.105/gallon) in diesel prices. It is the second price cut on fuel prices this year.

The price cut was in response to recent falls in global crude prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planning body.

China adopted a new oil pricing system this year, under which domestic fuel prices would be adjusted when the moving average of a basket of international crude (Brent, Dubai and Cinta) changes more than 4% over a period of 22 working days."

Bloomberg reports:

"Pump prices for 90 octane gasoline will be set at a maximum of 5.7 yuan ($0.83) a liter, or about $3.14 a gallon, in Beijing, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its Web site. Prices were adjusted to reflect the decline in global crude prices, said China’s top planning agency."

The reduction in price will encourage demand, of course.

4. MANUFACTURERS SAYS CHINESE COST OF LABOR NOT FALLING IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL DOWNTURN, REPORTS OF ILLUSORY REAL ESTATE BOOM

The American Chamber of Commerce recently released a report which says that the cost of labor is not falling substantially in China despite the global economic slowdown.

"Even with the current economic conditions, manufacturing in China has become more expensive. Companies reported that costs are still rising--up to 15% in 2008 compared to an increase of 10% in 2007--particularly in compensation costs for management, support staff and blue-collar workers as well as raw materials. Although labor and raw materials costs have come down from the premium levels of last summer, they are expected to rise again once market conditions improve.

Finding reliable, experienced talent has always been a challenge in China and despite rising unemployment during the current downturn, companies must ensure turnover remains at a minimum for when growth resumes.

• 86% of companies reported implementing pay-for-performance compensation plans.
• 62% of companies said they were providing training and development programs."

(h/t Carlos Tejada at the China Journal.) Meanwhile, China Stakes reports that while the Chinese real estate market appears to be in the midst of a boom, defaults are on the rise.

"Statistics show that from May 1 to July 24, which seemed to be good days for Shanghai's real estate market, many housing projects were seeing over 30% cancellations, and the cancellation rate of some projects was as high as 125%. Behind the 'boom' of the housing market are irregular behaviors such as getting bank loans by cheating and making fake housing purchasing contracts.

Among the top ten housing projects with the highest cancellation rates, 60% are developments by small and medium real estate companies. 'In fact, it is still difficult for small and medium developer to get credit support from banks,' said a sales manager of a medium real estate company.

Now it is common for developers to sell an apartment to an employee as a "reward" and then secure a loan from a bank with the housing purchasing contract signed by the employee. 'There's a window between the sale and the issuance of housing ownership certificate, during which employees can decide whether to keep or cancel the contract,' the sales manager added."

Prieur du Plessis at Investment Postcards from Cape Town links to a video of Hugh Hendry

"walking around the streets of China (presumably Beijing or Shanghai) and pointing out numerous empty buildings. Huge debt must have been incurred in erecting these buildings and without tenants there is no prospect of servicing the debt. What’s more, the workmanship also seems shoddy as a nearly-completed 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed last month.

Who will pick up the tab for creating all the overcapacity in the Chinese economy?"

Worth checking out.

5. EUROZONE BANKERS TIGHTENING CREDIT, FRUSTRATING STIMULUS EFFORTS

Margot Patrick, Laurence Norman, and Nina Koeppen at the Wall Street Journal report that the European Central Bank released a report today showing that eurozone banks continued to tighten credit in the second quarter, frustrating efforts at stimulus.

"Banks in the 16-country euro zone further tightened their credit standards in the second quarter, and companies and households may even face slightly tougher requirements in the current quarter, the European Central Bank said in a report on bank lending released Wednesday."

"'Access to credit has become clearly more difficult,' said Ifo Institute President Hans-Werner Sinn, commenting on the think-tank's latest credit constraint survey for German industry and trade, also published Wednesday. 'Despite the expansive monetary policy of the ECB, banks have become more restrictive in granting credit,' Mr Sinn said."

Worth reading in full.

6. TURKISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR INDICATES RATE CUTS TO CONTINUE


Ali Berat Meric and Steve Bryant at Bloomberg report that the governor of the Turkish central bank--Durmus Yilmaz--has indicated that it will continue to cut the benchmark interest rate and is unlikely to raise the rate until some point in 2011.

"The bank reduced its forecast for year-end inflation to 5.9% from 6%, assuming that 'policy rates are further lowered in the short term and held unchanged until the end of 2010,' Yilmaz said at a news conference in Ankara today. Inflation was 5.7% in June, compared with the bank’s year-end target of 7.5%."

7. BAGHDAD PLEDGES SUPPORT IN SUPPRESSING THE PKK

Thomas Grove and Pinar Aydinli at Reuters report that Iraqi Minister of State for National Security Shirwan al-Waeli told a news conference in Ankara that Baghdad will cooperate with Turkish and American efforts to suppress the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) until it is eliminated.

"Waeli and Turkish Interior Minister Besir Atalay told the joint news conference they expected concrete results of their cooperation by the time they meet again in Iraq in October but provided no further details."

8. IRAQI CABINET APPROVES THE RE-INCORPORATION OF A NATIONAL OIL COMPANY, OIL EXPORTS AND REVENUES INCREASE

Dow Jones Newswires reports that the Iraqi cabinet yesterday approved a law which would establish an Iraqi national oil company; it now must be approved by the parliament.

"The reinstated national oil company would act as the parent of the existing three major Iraqi oil operators--the South Oil Co., Iraq's largest petroleum company in Basra; North Oil Co. in Kirkuk; and Missan Oil Co. in Ammarh in southern Iraq."

"'In the new draft law we didn't mention the fields that the new company would run,' [Thamir] Ghadhban [an energy adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki] said. 'The fields to be operated by the company would be determined by a federal oil and gas council yet to be established,' he said.

The previous law stated that the INOC would have authority to conclude service and management contracts with international oil companies to improve oil recovery from producing fields. It isn't known if that provision was retained in the new law."

Meanwhile, Ben Lando at the Iraqi Oil Report reports that the Iraqi Oil Ministry announced that oil exports and revenues increased in June.

"The Oil Ministry data show oil exports reached 1.923 mb/d last month, up from 1.906 mb/d in May. Iraqi crude fetched an average $64.37/b, a more than $7/b increase on May.

Iraq earned nearly $62 billion in oil revenue last year and through July 22 this year’s exports have brought in $17.11 billion, according to the U.S. State Department’s most recent Iraq Status Report. It also estimated July production thus far at 2.46 mb/d and exports at 1.99 mb/d."

9. KYRGYZ POLICE BREAK UP ELECTION PROTESTS

The Associated Press reports that Kyrgyz police broke up opposition rallies protesting the recent Kyrgyz election results, which they contend were rigged.

"The opposition planned separate rallies and marches around the country Wednesday, rather than call all of its supporters to the center of the capital, Bishkek, in an effort to avoid a confrontation with police."

10. IRANIAN DEATHS IN DETENTION FUELING PUBLIC ANGER

Robert F Worth at the New York Times reports that accounts regarding the abuse of protesters arrested in Iran is fueling widespread anger at the administration.

"The head of Iran’s Supreme Administrative Court, Ayatollah Ghorbanali Dorri-Najafabadi, said more prisoners would be released by the end of the week. He added that a 'serious judicial inquiry' was being conducted into the deaths that have occurred in prisons since the June 12 election.

On Wednesday, there were conflicting reports about whether the government had released Saeed Hajjarian, a prominent reformist figure whose family said he was being subjected to torture.

Iran plans to put 20 people accused of rioting on trial starting Saturday, the official IRNA news agency reported. They are charged with 'attacking military units and universities, carrying firearms and explosives, organizing thugs and rioters, and vandalizing public property.'

On Tuesday, the state-financed English-language broadcaster Press TV quoted Farhad Tajari, deputy head of the parliamentary judicial commission, as saying that the former deputy interior minister, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and former deputy speaker of Parliament, Behzad Nabavi, were in detention facing major security charges and could be released on bail.

The prisoner releases appear to be the act of a government desperate to defuse the issue, coming quickly after the head of Iran’s judiciary promised Monday that the detainees’ cases would be expedited."

11. OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO EASE SANCTIONS ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS WITH SYRIA

Sharon Otterman at the New York Times reports that Obama Administration officials yesterday indicated that a message was conveyed by George Mitchell to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that the US will take new actions to ease sanctions on Syria on a case-by-case basis.

"[T]he American government [will] try to expedite the process for obtaining individual exemptions to the sanctions, which prohibit the export of all American products to Syria except food and medicine.

The move will particularly affect 'requests to export products related to information technology and telecommunication equipment and parts and components related to the safety of civil aviation,' said a State Department spokesman, Andrew J Laine."

The law imposing sanctions on Syria itself will, at this stage, remain untouched, but the Administration is indicating that OFAC will take a broader view when considering corporate requests for individual waivers.

12. UN WARNS OF WORSENING SITUATION IN SOUTH LEBANON

Naharnet News Desk reports that the UN has warned of a deteriorating situation in south Lebanon.

"The warning was made by Oscar Fernandez-Taranco, Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, during a Security Council meeting on the Middle East.

Taranco urged both the Israeli and Lebanese sides to 'end' their violations of Security Council Resolution 1701 which halted a 34-day war between the Jewish state and Hizbullah in the summer of 2006."

(h/t Michael Collins Dunn at the MEI's Editor's Blog.)

13. VENEZUELA RECALLS COLOMBIAN AMBASSADOR, THREATENS TO SHUT OFF TRADE, FARC SAYS HAD MADE NO ELECTION CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANY FOREIGN CANDIDATE, VENEZUELAN OIL MINISTER SAYS JAPAN-VENEZUELAN ORINOCO E&P JV WILL BE FINALIZED BY YEAR END

Christopher Toothaker at the Associated Press reported yesterday that Venezuela has recalled its ambassador to Colombia and threatened to halt imports from the country on the accusation aired by Bogota that anti-tank weapons found in a FARC stash came from Venezuela.

"Chávez also said he would sever diplomatic ties completely and seize control of Colombian-owned businesses 'if there's one more accusation against Venezuela.'"

"Chávez also raised the possibility of shutting down a 139-mile (224-kilometer) pipeline that carries 5.7 million to 8.5 million cubic meters (200 million to 300 million cubic feet) of natural gas daily from Colombia to oil installations in western Venezuela.

'The gas that comes from Colombia isn't indispensable for us. We could shut down that gas pipeline,' he said."

Tensions between Caracas and Bogota have long been tense, most recently inflamed by US plans to expand our military presence at three military bases in Colombia--see Daily Sources 7/22 #12. Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported yesterday that FARC officially denied that it had contributed to the 2006 election campaign of Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Correa recently publicly asked FARC to confirm that he had received no campaign contributions from the militant organization. FARC stated that it had at no time contributed to any election campaign in any foreign state.

"The FARC's ruling secretariat contends in a July 25 communique that video given to The Associated Press earlier this month by Colombian officials was manipulated by Bogota and Washington. The video shows the FARC's No 2 leader reading a letter in which contributions to Correa's campaign are mentioned."

Meanwhile, Carlos Camacho and Takeo Kumagai at Platts report that Venezuelan oil minister Rafael Ramirez announced yesterday that Japan and Venezuela will have an exploration and production plan for the Junin area of the Orinoco belt ready by October and a JV to carry out the E&P activity will be launched by year-end.

"Ramirez did not mention, which Japanese companies would be given the E&P contract (in a minority role, by law) together with PDVSA, but Mitsubishi, Itochu, Mitsui and Marubeni all have ongoing energy projects in Venezuela."

14. US MANUFACTURED DURABLE GOODS DOWN 2.5% IN JUNE FROM MAY, DOWN 27.7% YOY, MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION WARNS THAT INCENTIVES FOR MODIFYING MORTGAGES INSUFFICIENT

The Commerce Department today announced that new orders for manufactured durable goods in June fell $4.1 billion or 2.5% from May. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders rose 1.1%. Un-seasonally adjusted year over year new orders were down 26.7%, excluding transportation they are down 23.4% year over year. Meanwhile, Al Yoon at Reuters reports that the Independent Mortgage Servicers Coalition has issued a warning that the government incentives to modify bad mortgages may prove counterproductive.

"'We are in a position where it's a very tough balance act, and that's weighing heavily on us now,' said [Bruce] Rose [CEO of Carrington Capital Management, LLC], in an interview on Monday. 'This is a classic case of an unfunded government mandate.'

The costs of borrowing to finance delinquent payments to bond investors far outweigh expected revenue from incentives paid by the government, Rose said. The government will pay servicers $1,000 for every loan modified, and another $1,000 a year for three years if the borrower stays current.

The group since September has approached the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and Congress for help in funding the temporary 'advances' that are fully reimbursed when a loan is modified or foreclosed, Rose said. Help offered through the Fed's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF,) which allows for the pooling of advances for sale to investors, has backfired, and is increasing financing costs, he said."

(h/t Yves Smith at naked capitalism.)

15. COMMERCIAL CRUDE STOCKS WAY UP, REFINING UTILIZATION DOWN, IEA SUGGESTS $50-60 BOTTOM FOR OIL PRICE

The EIA reports that commercial crude stocks built by a whopping 5.1 million barrels in the week ended July 24 to 347.8 million barrels. The stock levels are above the five year historical range for this time of year and the build was versus the median expectation of analysts of a 1.5 million barrel draw, per a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks were drawn down by 2.3 million barrels and are near the top of the five year historical range. Distillate stocks, on the other hand, continued to build by another 2.1 million barrels versus analyst expectations of a 1 million barrel build. Distillate--diesel and heating oil--stocks are well above the historical range for this time of year, there are 32.1 million barrels more distillate held in commercial stocks than the equivalent week last year, or 24.6% more.



The ongoing build is consistent with the reports from the American Truckers Association, the American Association of Railroads, and US major ports. Total US refining utilization fell to 84.57% from the 85.84% reported for the week previous. For the week ended July 27, the national average of regular gasoline prices rose by 4 cents to $250.3/gallon, just inside the range where you start to see demand fall. The EIA report includes the following observation:

"On May 21, NOAA predicted a 70% probability that nine to 14 named storms will form within the Atlantic Basin during the current hurricane season, including four to seven total hurricanes of which one to three will be intense. These ranges are slightly above the seasonal average. Using these storm projections, the STEO analysis estimates the uncertainty surrounding seasonal shut-in projections. The median of the probability distribution represents an outage of 4.5 million barrels for the entire season, which is the assumption that the STEO uses for its forecasts for crude oil production."

Upstream online reports that Eduardo Lopez, a senior oil demand analyst at the International Energy Agency told Reuters that

"The evidence so far suggests that prices have probably reached a floor which maybe around $50 to $60. So, unless something dramatic were to happen, its plausible...prices will remain again at around that level, of course with probably a lot of volatility."

Monday Mark Shenk at Bloomberg noted that the current demand projections from the IEA do not correlate well with its past correlation with global GDP growth--see Daily Sources 7/27 #12.

16. FARM STATES INFLUENCE ON FOREIGN ENERGY POLICY--SHOCKED, JUST SHOCKED

Keith Johnson at Environmental Capital has a nice anecdote of how farm-state congressmen influence US foreign policy--including energy policy.

"Iowa’s Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is holding up the nomination of Thomas Shannon to become ambassador to Brazil. The problem? Mr. Shannon has hinted he’s in favor of repealing the $0.54 cent-per-gallon tariff the US levies on imports of Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol—a direct threat to the farm-state interests Mr. Grassley represents."

Worth reading in full.